The forecast through February 2026 expects deficits in Central and Eastern Europe, Central Asia, and the Levant. Surpluses are expected in the western Amazon, the Sahel and southern Africa, and northeastern Australia.
Severe to exceptional surpluses will remain throughout Queensland. Exceptional deficits will occur in portions of Victoria, Western Australia, Tasmania, and New Zealand.
Exceptional deficits will occur in northwestern and southeastern China, widespread throughout the Yangtze River Basin. Isolated pockets of surplus will affect portions of central and northeastern China.
Exceptional surpluses throughout Maritime Southeast Asia will mostly diminish, though pockets of severe to exceptional deficits will persist in portions of the Philippines, Indonesia, Papua, West Papua, and New Guinea.
Through January 2020 deficits will shrink and downgrade considerably. Severe to extreme deficits are, however, forecast for Tasmania and eastern Australia from Melbourne north through Canberra, moderating near Gold Coast in Queensland and continuing past Brisbane. Deficits in New Caledonia will downgrade from exceptional but will be severe to extreme.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from August 2019 through July 2020 include: Canada, Chile, Finland, Ukraine, Egypt, and United Arab Emirates. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: United States, Uruguay, Tanzania, Ireland, United Kingdom, India, and Bangladesh. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model v2 (WSIMv2) run on 6 November 2019
The forecast through December indicates that exceptional water deficits will shrink and downgrade in Australia, but a broad path of severe to extreme deficit is forecast from Brisbane in the east past Melbourne in the south and in Tasmania. Nearly normal water conditions are expected in New Zealand. Severe to extreme deficits will persist in New Caledonia.
The forecast through December indicates intense water surpluses in Northeast China and surpluses of varying intensity from Tibet through the Yellow River Watershed. Surpluses in China’s south and southeast will shrink and moderate. Deficits are forecast for Shandong, northern Inner Mongolia, eastern Xinjiang, Mongolia, and pockets of North Korea and Honshu, Japan.
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