The forecast through February 2026 expects deficits in Central and Eastern Europe, Central Asia, and the Levant. Surpluses are expected in the western Amazon, the Sahel and southern Africa, and northeastern Australia.
Severe to exceptional surpluses will remain throughout Queensland. Exceptional deficits will occur in portions of Victoria, Western Australia, Tasmania, and New Zealand.
Exceptional deficits will occur in northwestern and southeastern China, widespread throughout the Yangtze River Basin. Isolated pockets of surplus will affect portions of central and northeastern China.
Exceptional surpluses throughout Maritime Southeast Asia will mostly diminish, though pockets of severe to exceptional deficits will persist in portions of the Philippines, Indonesia, Papua, West Papua, and New Guinea.
The forecast through April indicates widespread water surpluses in the Northern Plains States and Upper Midwest, exceptional in the Dakotas and Nebraska. Moderate surpluses are expected in Tennessee, the Carolinas, Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia. Areas of deficit include central Colorado, eastern Texas, and northern California.
The forecast through April indicates that water deficits will shrink and downgrade considerably. Deficits will be exceptional at the confluence of the Murray and Darling Rivers, moderate to severe from Canberra to Melbourne, and intense in Tasmania. Deficits are also forecast in northern New Zealand and in New Caledonia.
The forecast through April indicates water deficits of varying intensity across many regions in northern Africa. Exceptional deficits will retreat from the Horn. Widespread surpluses will persist in East Africa, downgrading slightly. Southern African nations can expect normal conditions or mild deficits.
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