The forecast through July indicates widespread water surpluses of varying intensity a vast area on either side of the Mississippi River. Exceptional anomalies are forecast around Sioux Falls, and along the Mississippi River on either side of Memphis and from Louisiana to the Gulf. Surpluses will increase in the Rockies and shrink slightly and moderate in California. In the Pacific Northwest, deficits will shrink in Washington; Oregon will transition from deficit to moderate surplus.
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Most notable in the forecast through May is the absence of widespread, intense water surpluses observed in the East in prior months and the emergence of surpluses in the West. Surpluses will shrink and downgrade in the center of the country but remain widespread in a broad path from southern Minnesota to the Gulf of Mexico and will be intense in Kansas. Moderate surpluses will cover much of California, and many Rocky Mountain States will transition from deficit to surplus.
Most notable in the forecast through April is the absence of widespread, intense water surpluses observed in the East in prior months. Surpluses will, however, persist in a massive path down the center of the country from Wisconsin through Texas, and moderate surpluses will emerge in the Rocky Mountains, in California from San Francisco Bay to the southern border, and along the Missouri and Colorado Rivers. Surpluses will be exceptional in central Kansas, on the Arkansas River, and in central Texas.
Though exceptional water surpluses will diminish through March, widespread and intense conditions will persist from Wisconsin through southern Minnesota, Iowa, eastern Nebraska, eastern Kansas, central Oklahoma, and central and eastern Texas. Surpluses along the Eastern Seaboard will also persist but moderate, while conditions in the Ohio River Valley normalize. In the western US, mild deficits are forecast punctuated by pockets of more intense anomalies, deficits as well as surpluses.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from October 2018 through September 2019 include: Quebec (Canada), Finland, Venezuela, Somalia, South Africa, India, Thailand, Cambodia, and Australia. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: Texas (US), Paraguay, Uruguay, Tanzania, and China. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) run on 1 February 2019.
Through February, widespread intense water surpluses will persist in the center of the country and in the east. Surpluses will cut a broad path from Michigan’s Upper Peninsula, passing through Iowa and reaching the eastern half of Texas. Surpluses are also forecast for the northern Ohio River Basin and in the east from southern New York through Florida’s Panhandle, and will be extreme in eastern Pennsylvania. Areas of deficit include: northern New York, northern Maine, southern Florida, northwestern Wyoming, Colorado, and western Oregon.
The forecast through January calls attention to significant water surpluses that will cut a wide north/south path from Michigan’s Upper Peninsula down through Texas, and will emerge in the Ohio River Valley leading into widespread surpluses in the east from Maine to South Carolina. Surpluses are expected to be exceptional in Texas, Wisconsin, and Iowa, among other areas. Moderate to extreme deficits are forecast for Florida. Deficits are also forecast for central Colorado, the Rio Grande through New Mexico, and northwestern California into Oregon.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from August 2018 through July 2019 include: Quebec (Canada), Amazonas (Brazil), Chile, Germany, Finland, Latvia, Egypt, western Cambodia, and southeastern Australia. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: Texas (US), Liberia, Paraguay, Myanmar, and Heilongjiang (China). This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) run on 12 November 2018.
The forecast through December indicates many areas of water surplus including Iowa and surrounding states, the Ohio River Basin, eastern Pennsylvania, and Texas. Surpluses will be intense in Iowa and Pennsylvania. Deficits are expected in the Southeast, primarily moderate but more intense in Florida surrounding Lake Okeechobee. Intense deficits are also forecast along the Arkansas River, and in Colorado, and north-central Utah. Other areas of deficits include the Canadian River, the Rio Grande through New Mexico, and Maine.
The forecast through November indicates that water deficits will downgrade considerably overall leaving mild to moderate deficits, but deficits will be intense along the Arkansas River through Kansas and Colorado, western Colorado, northeastern Utah, along the Canadian River through Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle, and in the US Northeast. Areas of surplus include: Montana, the Black Hills of South Dakota, northern Nebraska, Iowa, Wisconsin, and eastern Pennsylvania.