The forecast through February 2026 expects deficits in Central and Eastern Europe, Central Asia, and the Levant. Surpluses are expected in the western Amazon, the Sahel and southern Africa, and northeastern Australia.
Severe to exceptional surpluses will remain throughout Queensland. Exceptional deficits will occur in portions of Victoria, Western Australia, Tasmania, and New Zealand.
Exceptional deficits will occur in northwestern and southeastern China, widespread throughout the Yangtze River Basin. Isolated pockets of surplus will affect portions of central and northeastern China.
Exceptional surpluses throughout Maritime Southeast Asia will mostly diminish, though pockets of severe to exceptional deficits will persist in portions of the Philippines, Indonesia, Papua, West Papua, and New Guinea.
The forecast through January 2021 indicates that water deficits will shrink considerably. Areas of deficit include Estonia, Latvia, and Belarus. Widespread surpluses will persist in western European Russia and in Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Austria, reaching well into surrounding nations and Romania.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period of August 2020 through July 2021 include: Venezuela, Estonia, Latvia, Jordan, Quebec (Canada), and the U.S. Southwest. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: China, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and southwestern India. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model v2 (WSIMv2) run on 5 November 2020.
The Outlook for November 2020 indicates that the Orinoco River Watershed of Venezuela will be much wetter than normal, while the Andes region through western Colombia and Ecuador will be much drier. Much of Madagascar will be drier than normal as well. The western U.S. can expect to be hotter than normal, particularly the Southwest. And nearly all of the vast expanse of Russia will see temperatures above normal.
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