The ISciences Global Water Monitor and Forecast Watch List provides monthly reports of data collected by our Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM), which monitors and forecasts water anomalies on a global basis.
The forecast for April 2024 expects significant water deficits for the 12-month period of January 2024 through December 2024 in South America, northeastern Africa, and the Middle East. Areas expected to experience surplus include eastern to eastern Africa, northern Australia, Europe, and Southeast Asia.
The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits will persist in northwestern regions of China, but lessen in size in northern and northeastern China. Surpluses occurring in Tibet are also expected to remain but diminish in size.
The forecast indicates that deficits will persist throughout Mainland Southeast Asia, but decrease in intensity, becoming mostly moderate to severe anomalies. Intense surplus is expected to expand throughout Maritime Southeast Asia, particularly in central Indonesia, Papua, and Papua New Guinea.
Intense water deficits will persist in many parts of the region through October after which conditions will moderate overall. For the next several months, exceptional deficits are forecast for Saudi Arabia, southern Iraq, Kuwait, United Arab Emirates, and southern Iran. Conditions in Gaza and Israel will be fairly intense as well and severe deficits are forecast for West Bank, Yemen, western Oman, Qatar, and western Iraq. Deficits of varying severity are forecast for Turkey and Georgia.
Widespread intense water deficits are forecast for the Arabian Peninsula through September, gradually diminishing in extent and severity thereafter. From July through September exceptional deficits will persist across central Saudi Arabia, in southern Iraq, and in Lebanon, and severe to extreme deficits are forecast for Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Yemen, Iraq west of the Euphrates, and North Khorasan, Iran. Surpluses in Fars and near Tehran, Iran will transition to conditions of both deficit and surplus, receding by early next year. Surpluses along the northern Iran/Iraq border will persist through December, and a pocket of exceptional surplus in central Oman will persist through March 2018.
Exceptional water deficits spanning the Arabian Peninsula are expected to continue through November affecting southern Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, the Gulf States, all of Yemen, and most of Oman. Conditions are expected to moderate in early 2018. Moderate to exceptional surpluses in northern Iraq extending into Iran should subside by December. Exceptional surpluses in south central Iran are expected to persist through the forecast period before moderating between December and February 2018. A pocket of exceptional surplus in central Oman persists throughout the forecast period into 2018.
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