Water deficits are forecast for much of the eastern half of the country and will increase on the Ontario/Quebec border corridor. Widespread, intense surpluses will emerge in southeastern British Columbia (BC), particularly surrounding Kamloops and Kelowna. Intense deficits will continue to emerge around Prince George, BC. Deficits in the Upper Athabasca Watershed of central Alberta will intensify, becoming exceptional. Exceptional surplus conditions will persist from Fort McMurray, Alberta to Churchill Lake, Saskatchewan, and around Fort St. John in the Peace River Region of northeastern BC.
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Widespread, intense water surpluses will emerge in southern British Columbia. Northern Quebec is expected to transition from surplus to normal conditions and moderate deficit. Nearly normal conditions will return to Northern Ontario’s Albany River region. Significant deficits are forecast along the Ontario/Quebec border corridor, surrounding Lake Mistassini QC, the Upper Athabasca Watershed of central Alberta, and surrounding Prince George, BC.
The forecast through April indicates water conditions much the same as in the prior three months, with some overall shrinkage of anomalies in the eastern half of the country. One notable difference is the emergence of widespread intense surplus conditions in southern British Columbia. After April, much of the eastern half of the country will transition to deficit, retaining exceptional deficits in eastern Quebec, central Quebec, and the central Quebec/Ontario border. Deficits in the western provinces will diminish slightly, and intense surpluses will persist in parts of southern BC.
The near-term forecast indicates a pattern of water anomalies much like the prior three months. Widespread surpluses will continue in northeastern Quebec, central Ontario, west of Lake Winnipeg in Manitoba, near Churchill Lake in Saskatchewan and into Alberta, the central border of Alberta and British Columbia, and southeastern BC. Deficit areas include: central Quebec and the Ontario/Quebec border; northwestern Ontario into central Manitoba; and southern Manitoba and southeastern Saskatchewan. After March, surpluses in Quebec and Ontario will transition to deficit.