Widespread, intense water surpluses will emerge in southern British Columbia. Northern Quebec is expected to transition from surplus to normal conditions and moderate deficit. Nearly normal conditions will return to Northern Ontario’s Albany River region. Significant deficits are forecast along the Ontario/Quebec border corridor, surrounding Lake Mistassini QC, the Upper Athabasca Watershed of central Alberta, and surrounding Prince George, BC.
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Widespread water surpluses will continue to emerge in northeastern Quebec and surpluses are also forecast for central Ontario, west of Lake Winnipeg in Manitoba, near Churchill Lake in Saskatchewan, and the central border of Alberta and British Columbia. Exceptional surpluses are forecast around Kelowna, BC. Significant areas of deficit include: the Ontario/Quebec border; from Calgary, Alberta northeast and from Banff into British Columbia; and, Prince George, BC. After February, surpluses in Quebec and Ontario will normalize, widespread surpluses are expected in southern BC, and moderate deficits will emerge from Lake Superior eastward past Montreal.
While the forecast for Canada will remain a patchwork of water anomalies, the most noticeable difference in the near-term is the widespread emergence of surplus conditions in Quebec and the slight downgrade of deficits west of Hudson Bay. Surpluses may be extreme near Ottawa. Significant deficits are forecast through January or longer in Jamésie, Quebec; the northern border between Quebec and Ontario; the southeast and southwest shores of Hudson Bay; and northwestern Ontario into central Manitoba. After January near-normal water conditions are forecast for large portions of eastern Canada.
The near-term forecast through December indicates intense water deficits along the northern Ontario-Quebec border into southern Nord-du-Québec, and in Sherbrooke (Quebec), New Brunswick, southern Nova Scotia, southeastern Newfoundland, northeastern Manitoba into Quebec, and from Glacier National Park in British Columbia into Alberta. Deficits will retreat in the Prairie Provinces. Exceptional surpluses are forecast west of Lake Winnipeg in Manitoba into Saskatchewan; from Churchill Lake in SK past Ft. McMurray, Alberta; and, near Kelowna, BC.
Water deficits of varying severity are expected through October in central and northern Quebec, Ontario, northeastern Manitoba, and northern British Columbia and Alberta. These deficits may be exceptional through July in Ontario along the border with Quebec and northeastern Manitoba, and through October across central Quebec. Moderate surpluses are forecast through October in southern Quebec. Surpluses reaching exceptional intensity are forecast through July in northeastern British Columbia; and through October from northwestern Saskatchewan into Ft. McMurray, Alberta, and northwest of Lake Winnipeg in Manitoba.
Widespread severe to exceptional water deficits are forecast through September in much of Quebec, along its border into Ontario, around Hudson Bay in Manitoba, and in central and northwestern regions of Alberta and British Columbia. Large pockets of exceptional surpluses are expected to persist through June in southeastern British Columbia, northwestern Saskatchewan into Alberta, and in central Manitoba. These surpluses are expected to diminish after June.