The ISciences Global Water Monitor and Forecast Watch List provides monthly reports of data collected by our Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM), which monitors and forecasts water anomalies on a global basis.
The forecast for April 2024 expects significant water deficits for the 12-month period of January 2024 through December 2024 in South America, northeastern Africa, and the Middle East. Areas expected to experience surplus include eastern to eastern Africa, northern Australia, Europe, and Southeast Asia.
The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits will persist in northwestern regions of China, but lessen in size in northern and northeastern China. Surpluses occurring in Tibet are also expected to remain but diminish in size.
The forecast indicates that deficits will persist throughout Mainland Southeast Asia, but decrease in intensity, becoming mostly moderate to severe anomalies. Intense surplus is expected to expand throughout Maritime Southeast Asia, particularly in central Indonesia, Papua, and Papua New Guinea.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period of June 2021 through May 2022 include: the U.S. West, Canada, North Africa, Central Asia, and Hokkaido, Japan. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: Northeast China, the Yellow River, Yangtze River, Nepal, Bangladesh, and the Yenisei River. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model v2 (WSIMv2) run on 7 September 2021.
The forecast through March indicates that exceptional water deficits in western Cambodia will shrink somewhat but persist, and deficits in Thailand will downgrade slightly but remain widespread. Other areas of deficit include the Philippines, eastern Borneo, Sumatra’s southern tip, and Papua New Guinea. Surpluses are forecast for much of Vietnam, north-central Laos, most of Sumatra, western Indonesian Borneo, and pockets of Java.
Though water deficits persist in western Cambodia and Papua New Guinea, surpluses have dominated the rest of the region but will gradually transition to moderate deficit. Through March, exceptional surpluses are forecast in Myanmar, northern Laos, and northern Vietnam; less intense surpluses in southern Laos, eastern Cambodia, southern Vietnam, the Philippines, and Sumatra; and exceptional deficits in western Cambodia and northern Papua New Guinea. Mild deficits will emerge in Indonesia, and continue to emerge overall after March.
The forecast indicates a gradual transition from predominantly surplus conditions to deficit. Western Cambodia and eastern Papua New Guinea, however, show deficit conditions throughout the 12-month forecast. Surpluses will begin to downgrade in the near-term but exceptional surpluses remain in the forecast through December for western Myanmar, northern and southern Laos, and along the west side of the Mekong River in Cambodia down to Phnom Penh. After December severe deficits will begin to emerge in Malaysia and Indonesia.
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