The forecast through June indicates that exceptional deficits will retreat from Quebec’s Ottawa-Gatineau Watershed; surpluses in Northern Ontario will transition to deficit; and deficits in the Middle Reaches of the Athabasca River Watershed in Alberta will become exceptional. Primarily moderate deficits are forecast across southern Manitoba and Saskatchewan. Intense surpluses will emerge in the Columbia River Basin in British Columbia, and deficits near Vancouver will persist but downgrade.
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The major changes forecast through May are that exceptional water deficits will shrink in Quebec though large pockets will persist, and widespread surpluses in Northern Ontario will transition to deficit. As for major population areas, intense deficits are forecast for Southern Ontario and through southern Quebec; near Vancouver, British Columbia; near Winnipeg, Manitoba; and surrounding Regina, Saskatchewan. Deficits of varying intensity are forecast in many parts of the country. In British Columbia, surpluses will increase in the southeast and transition to deficit in the southwest.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from November 2018 through October 2019 include: Quebec (Canada), Finland, Latvia, Somalia, Angola, Iran, Thailand, Cambodia, and Australia. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: Kansas and Texas (US), Paraguay, Uruguay, Syria, Tanzania, and China. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) run on 8 February 2019.
The forecast through March indicates a pattern of water anomalies similar to the prior three months. Notable changes are as follows: deficits are expected to increase and intensify in southern Saskatchewan and to a lesser extent in southern Alberta; and, moderate surpluses will emerge in southwestern British Columbia and along the length of BC’s coast. Persisting conditions include intense deficits in the Ottawa-Gatineau Region of Quebec and across the border into Southern Ontario.
The forecast through February indicates a pattern of anomalies similar to the prior three months, including: exceptional water deficits in Quebec, notably in the Ottawa-Gatineau River region in the south and across the border into Ontario; intense deficits in the Middle and Upper Reaches of the Athabasca River watershed in Alberta; and intense surpluses in southeastern British Columbia. Deficits are expected to increase in southern Saskatchewan where anomalies will be severe to exceptional.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from September 2018 through August 2019 include: Quebec (Canada), Chile, Finland, Albania, northern Africa, India, western Cambodia, and southeastern Australia. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: Texas and Pennsylvania (US), Paraguay, western Tanzania, Tomsk and Kemerovo (Russia), and Heilongjiang (China). This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) run on 7 December 2018.
Through December, exceptional water deficits in the east will shrink somewhat, and moderate to severe surpluses will emerge in much of northern Ontario with intense deficits in the northwest. Deficits will diminish considerably in the southern portions of the Prairie Provinces, though moderate deficits will linger in southern Manitoba and will emerge along the North Saskatchewan River. Elsewhere in the west the pattern of anomalies will remain much the same as in the prior three months.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from June 2018 through May 2019 include: the US Pacific Northwest, southern Mexico, Brazil, Chile, Central and Northern Europe, northern Africa, the Middle East, Afghanistan, and southern India. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: Tanzania, Kenya, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Laos, and Heilongjiang, China. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) run on 10 September 2018.
Exceptional water deficits are forecast to decrease, though vast blocks will persist. These areas include: Quebec from the Caniapiscau Reservoir to the St. Lawrence River; surrounding Lake Mistassini, QC; Ontario’s eastern border; northeastern Manitoba; the Lower Athabasca River region in Alberta; surrounding Prince George, British Columbia; and, northwestern BC. Intense surpluses will persist from northwestern Saskatchewan reaching west to Fort McMurray, Alberta, and in southeastern BC.
Exceptional water deficits are expected to decrease but will persist in many areas, including along Ontario’s eastern border. Surpluses are expected northwest of Toronto, and moderate deficits from Peterborough to Ottawa. In Quebec, deficits will be extreme around Sherbrooke. Severe deficits are forecast for southern Manitoba. Deficits will be intense in the Upper Athabasca and Lower Peace River Regions of Alberta, and surrounding Prince George, BC. Surpluses will increase in southern BC and will be exceptional around Kamloops and Kelowna.