The forecast through February 2026 expects deficits in Central and Eastern Europe, Central Asia, and the Levant. Surpluses are expected in the western Amazon, the Sahel and southern Africa, and northeastern Australia.
Severe to exceptional surpluses will remain throughout Queensland. Exceptional deficits will occur in portions of Victoria, Western Australia, Tasmania, and New Zealand.
Exceptional deficits will occur in northwestern and southeastern China, widespread throughout the Yangtze River Basin. Isolated pockets of surplus will affect portions of central and northeastern China.
Exceptional surpluses throughout Maritime Southeast Asia will mostly diminish, though pockets of severe to exceptional deficits will persist in portions of the Philippines, Indonesia, Papua, West Papua, and New Guinea.
Water deficits are expected to shrink and downgrade significantly through January with conditions approaching normal in Iraq, Syria, northeastern Saudi Arabia, and Iran. Deficits will intensify in Georgia, and extreme deficits will emerge on the Kura River in Azerbaijan. Intense deficits are also forecast for southern Saudi Arabia, Yemen, and, to a lesser degree, western Turkey and along Turkey’s Black Sea coast.
Water deficits are expected to shrink and downgrade significantly through December but intense deficits will persist in southern Iraq. Severe deficits are forecast for Georgia, Kuwait, most of Saudi Arabia, and into western United Arab Emirates. Deficits of varying severity are expected in Yemen, moderate to severe deficits in central and southern Iran, and mild deficits in the Levant.
Through November extreme to exceptional deficits will dominate much of Saudi Arabia, southern and western Iraq, Kuwait, large pockets of southern Iran, Qatar, and United Arab Emirates. Primarily moderate deficits are forecast for the Levant. Deficits of varying intensity are forecast for much of Turkey and will be severe in central Turkey, along its northeastern coast, and through Georgia.
Intense water deficits will persist in many parts of the region through October after which conditions will moderate overall. For the next several months, exceptional deficits are forecast for Saudi Arabia, southern Iraq, Kuwait, United Arab Emirates, and southern Iran. Conditions in Gaza and Israel will be fairly intense as well and severe deficits are forecast for West Bank, Yemen, western Oman, Qatar, and western Iraq. Deficits of varying severity are forecast for Turkey and Georgia.
The forecast through September indicates that water deficits will downgrade in the Levant but remain intense in West Bank and Lebanon, and deficits will intensify on the Arabian Peninsula. In Turkey, deficits will downgrade and shrink somewhat but much of Turkey will continue in moderate to severe deficit with some pockets of greater intensity. Exceptional deficits will persist in southern Iraq, and severe deficits west of the Euphrates River. In Iran, deficits will increase and become more intense.
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