The forecast through February 2026 expects deficits in Central and Eastern Europe, Central Asia, and the Levant. Surpluses are expected in the western Amazon, the Sahel and southern Africa, and northeastern Australia.
Severe to exceptional surpluses will remain throughout Queensland. Exceptional deficits will occur in portions of Victoria, Western Australia, Tasmania, and New Zealand.
Exceptional deficits will occur in northwestern and southeastern China, widespread throughout the Yangtze River Basin. Isolated pockets of surplus will affect portions of central and northeastern China.
Exceptional surpluses throughout Maritime Southeast Asia will mostly diminish, though pockets of severe to exceptional deficits will persist in portions of the Philippines, Indonesia, Papua, West Papua, and New Guinea.
The forecast through December indicates that exceptional water deficits will shrink and downgrade in Australia, but a broad path of severe to extreme deficit is forecast from Brisbane in the east past Melbourne in the south and in Tasmania. Nearly normal water conditions are expected in New Zealand. Severe to extreme deficits will persist in New Caledonia.
The forecast through December indicates intense water surpluses in Northeast China and surpluses of varying intensity from Tibet through the Yellow River Watershed. Surpluses in China’s south and southeast will shrink and moderate. Deficits are forecast for Shandong, northern Inner Mongolia, eastern Xinjiang, Mongolia, and pockets of North Korea and Honshu, Japan.
The forecast through December indicates that water surpluses of varying intensity will dominate most of India and will include exceptional anomalies from Mumbai into Kerala; the Indravati River Basin; the Narmada River Basin; and central Rajasthan. Surpluses are also forecast for Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, the Indus River system in Pakistan, and much of Afghanistan.
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