The forecast through September indicates that the extent of intense water deficits will diminish across the northern nations but will persist in French Guiana and Suriname. In Brazil, intense deficits will persist in Amapá, the southern Amazon Basin, Mato Grosso, Matto Grosso do Sul, western São Paulo State, eastern Minas Gerais, and Espírito Santo. Areas of surplus include central Paraguay and northern Argentina.
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Rio Grande do Sul
The forecast through August 2019 indicates that water deficits in Colombia, Venezuela, Guyana, and northwestern Brazil will downgrade considerably. However, severe to exceptional deficits are forecast for Suriname, French Guiana, and many regions of Brazil including Amapá, the southern Amazon Basin, and São Paulo State. Intense deficits will emerge tracing the Andes Mountains through Peru and into Chile. Surpluses will persist in central and eastern Paraguay and in northern Argentina.
The forecast through April indicates that water deficits in the Amazon Basin will shrink. Deficits are forecast for many other parts of Brazil, including intense deficits in Maranhão, eastern Goiás, Minas Gerais, São Paulo, and along many rivers. Deficits are also forecast for Brazil’s northern neighbors, and Peru and Chile. Surpluses are forecast for central Paraguay, northeastern Argentina, Uruguay, and Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil.
The forecast through March indicates that water deficits in the Amazon Basin will shrink, but exceptional deficits will persist in southern Amazonas and the center of the country, and intense deficits will emerge Central-West and Southeast states and along the São Francisco River. Other areas of deficit include Peru and Chile. Surpluses will emerge in northeastern Argentina, Uruguay, and Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, with exceptional surpluses in eastern Uruguay.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from October 2018 through September 2019 include: Quebec (Canada), Finland, Venezuela, Somalia, South Africa, India, Thailand, Cambodia, and Australia. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: Texas (US), Paraguay, Uruguay, Tanzania, and China. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) run on 1 February 2019.
The January Outlook indicates much wetter than normal conditions forecast for southern China through the Pearl River Basin encompassing the Pearl’s northern tributaries; and, oceans away in Uruguay. Temperatures in Northeast China are expected to be exceptionally warmer than usual, anomalies with a return period of 40 or more years.
Exceptional water deficits will diminish considerably over the next several months but through February intense deficits are forecast in: southern Amazonas, Brazil; southeastern Venezuela; northern Chile; and southwestern Bolivia. Deficits of varying intensity are forecast in the northwest quadrant of the continent. Areas of surplus include: Amapá, Brazil, and southern Mato Grosso through western Minas Gerais; northern Bolivia; Paraguay; and the Paraná River in Argentina to Buenos Aires.
The extent of exceptional water deficit in the region will diminish considerably through December, though deficits will cover most of Brazil and will be intense across the north, in Mato Grosso, São Paulo, and Paraná. Intense deficits are also forecast in Bolivia from east of La Paz through Cochabamba to the south, and from southern Peru through the Atacama Desert in northern Chile past Santiago. Surpluses will persist in Uruguay, and in Entre Rios and Buenos Aires Provinces in Argentina, and will emerge in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from December 2017 through November 2018 include: the US West, Southwest, and South Atlantic States; southern Venezuela; Uruguay; northeastern Argentina; Finland; northern Africa and Gabon; and southern Iraq. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: the Ohio River Valley and western Montana (US); Paraguay; Tanzania and Ethiopia; Ireland; Central and Eastern Europe; and European Russia. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) run on 7 March 2018.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from November 2017 through October 2018 include: California, Nevada, Arizona, Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi, Venezuela, French Guiana, Gabon, Mongolia, and Tasmania. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: Ireland, Poland, European Russia, Tanzania, and Philippines. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) run on 6 February 2018.