Exceptional water deficits will diminish considerably over the next several months but through February intense deficits are forecast in: southern Amazonas, Brazil; southeastern Venezuela; northern Chile; and southwestern Bolivia. Deficits of varying intensity are forecast in the northwest quadrant of the continent. Areas of surplus include: Amapá, Brazil, and southern Mato Grosso through western Minas Gerais; northern Bolivia; Paraguay; and the Paraná River in Argentina to Buenos Aires.
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A number of significant transitions are forecast for the next three months. Though exceptional water deficits will diminish across northern South America – transitioning to surplus in many northern nations and the northern Amazon Basin – deficits will intensify in eastern Brazil. Surpluses are forecast to emerge throughout Paraguay and into southern Brazil. Surpluses in Uruguay will transition to moderate deficit; Buenos Aires Province, Argentina will transition from surplus to near-normal. After March, water anomalies will moderate considerably across most of the continent.
Exceptional water deficits are forecast to diminish considerably over the next three months except in the western Amazon Basin in Brazil and Acre, Rondônia, Mato Grosso, and Tocantins. Deficits are also expected across Brazil’s Northeast region. Elsewhere on the continent, intense deficits are expected in western Bolivia and the Gulf of Corcovado, Chile. Areas of surpluses include central Colombia; Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil; and La Pampa Province, Argentina. After February widespread surpluses will emerge in the northern Amazon Basin and Venezuela, Guyana, and Suriname.
A significant retreat of water deficits is forecast October through June, but through December exceptional deficits are expected in northernmost Brazil and into neighboring countries. Deficits are also forecast north of Lake Titicaca in Peru through La Paz and Cochabamba, Bolivia and into Argentina. Widespread, primarily moderate deficits are predicted in much of eastern Brazil, which may be more severe along the coast of the State of São Paulo. Surpluses are forecast in central Colombia, northern Peru, northern Bolivia, eastern Argentina, Uruguay, and O’Higgins Lake in Patagonia. After December widespread moderate surpluses are forecast in the northern Amazon Basin