The forecast through May indicates the emergence of a vast stretch of extreme to exceptional water deficits in southern and eastern Mongolia and Inner Mongolia, China. Widespread surpluses will downgrade but persist in the Yangtze Basin’s Lower Reaches and in the southern portion of the Middle Reaches. Moderate deficits will emerge in Hainan and conditions in Taiwan will transition to near-normal. Intense deficits will emerge on the Korean Peninsula and will increase in much of Japan.
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The near-term forecast through November indicates intense surpluses in China’s Jilin and Heilongjiang Provinces; along the Yellow River; in Shaanxi, southern Gansu, and Qinghai; and in Tibet. Surpluses are also forecast for southern China and Hokkaido, Japan. Deficits reaching exceptional intensity are forecast from western Inner Mongolia across much of Xinjiang. Deficits are also expected in the Lower and Middle Yangtze River Basin, South Korea, and southwestern Japan.
Exceptional water deficits in Mongolia and Inner Mongolia through southern Xinjiang will diminish considerably, though widespread deficits of varying severity are expected. Deficits will increase in Northeast China and are expected to be intense in Liaoning, Jilin, and Heilongjiang. In Southeast China, moderate to exceptional deficits are forecast for Fujian, Guangdong, Jiangxi, Hunan, Guangxi, Hong Kong, and Taiwan. Surpluses are forecast for the Huai River Basin. Moderate deficits are forecast for much of North Korea but deficits may be severe north of Pyongyang.