Water surpluses in the Lower Yangtze are expected to become widespread and exceptional. Exceptional surpluses are also forecast for the Middle and Upper Yellow River, Qinghai, and western Tibet. Intense deficits will continue to emerge in Mongolia and Inner Mongolia, deficits in South Korea will increase, and deficits in southeastern China will moderate, except in Fujian. After January exceptional deficits will continue to emerge to form a vast stretch across much of Mongolia and Inner Mongolia. Deficits will emerge around the Bohai Sea, and surpluses in the Lower Yangtze will diminish.
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Widespread intense deficits will emerge in Zhejiang, Fujian, Guangdong, and Taiwan. Widespread intense surpluses are forecast for a vast stretch of the Upper and Middle Yangtze River, with exceptional surpluses in the Han River watershed. Aforementioned deficits may persist through March and surpluses may persist longer. Severe surpluses will continue to emerge along the Middle and Lower Yellow River through December. Surpluses in the western Pearl River watershed and around the Gulf of Tonkin are forecast to diminish slowly through March. Intense surpluses will continue to emerge in eastern Qinghai while intense deficits are forecast in the west.
Recent exceptional deficits in Mongolia into Northeast China, on the Korean Peninsula, and in Honshu, Japan are expected to moderate in the near term – August through October – but severe to extreme deficits will continue to emerge in the northeast and moderate deficits will emerge from southern Gansu to the East China Sea. Widespread surpluses are forecast across much of southern China. After October intense deficits in northwestern China will increase in extent, in Xinjiang through Inner Mongolia and Mongolia, and deficits of lesser severity will continue to emerge in the Northeast China and in the North China Plain.
China, Mongolia, & the Korean Peninsula: Water surpluses in Southeast China, deficits in Northern China
Widespread water deficits may persist in North China including the North China Plain and Mongolia, with some areas experiencing both deficits and surpluses. Widespread surpluses are forecast for Southeast China, which may be of exceptional severity in Fujian, along the Pearl River (Zhujiang), and at the conjoined borders of Guizhou, Hunan, and Guangxi. Surpluses may also persist in North Korea.