Most notable in the forecast through May is the absence of widespread, intense water surpluses observed in the East in prior months and the emergence of surpluses in the West. Surpluses will shrink and downgrade in the center of the country but remain widespread in a broad path from southern Minnesota to the Gulf of Mexico and will be intense in Kansas. Moderate surpluses will cover much of California, and many Rocky Mountain States will transition from deficit to surplus.
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The forecast through November indicates that water deficits will downgrade considerably overall leaving mild to moderate deficits, but deficits will be intense along the Arkansas River through Kansas and Colorado, western Colorado, northeastern Utah, along the Canadian River through Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle, and in the US Northeast. Areas of surplus include: Montana, the Black Hills of South Dakota, northern Nebraska, Iowa, Wisconsin, and eastern Pennsylvania.
For the next several months, water deficits will diminish overall but intense deficits are forecast for southern California, the Willamette Valley in Oregon, along the Arkansas River, and western Colorado. Areas of moderate deficit include northern Minnesota and from Missouri to the Gulf. Surpluses are forecast for northern Nebraska, the Black Hills of South Dakota, southern Montana, the Pecos River in New Mexico into Texas, eastern Pennsylvania, Maryland, northern Virginia, coastal North Carolina, and much of Florida from Jacksonville past Lake Kissimmee.
Intense water surpluses in the Ohio River Valley and the Lower Mississippi Basin will retreat considerably. Surpluses in western Montana and northern Idaho will remain intense. Exceptional deficits will persist in Utah and increase in southwest Colorado, but deficits in surrounding states will moderate. On the East Coast deficits will retreat, except in South Carolina and Georgia. Southern Florida will transition from deficit to surplus. Moderate deficits are forecast for Nebraska, eastern North Dakota, Minnesota, and northern Wisconsin.
The forecast through June indicates that deficits will diminish and downgrade in the South Atlantic States, retreat considerably in the Gulf States, downgrade to moderate in the Southern Plains States, persist with intensity in the Southwest, and shrink in central California. Surpluses are forecast for Idaho, Montana, western Wyoming, Nebraska, South Dakota, Iowa, Missouri, and along the Missouri and Yellowstone Rivers. Surpluses will be exceptional in Idaho and Montana. Surpluses in the Ohio River Valley will diminish. After June, anomalies will downgrade, but persist.
Water surpluses will continue to emerge in southern Michigan and the Ohio River Valley. Exceptional surplus is expected on the Missouri River, western Montana, Idaho, and Washington. Intense deficits will continue in the West and Southwest. Moderate deficits are forecast for Oregon, Kansas, western Oklahoma, and most of Texas west of the Brazos River, with severe conditions in the Panhandle. Missouri, Arkansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi will transition out of deficit, with moderate surplus emerging in Arkansas into surrounding states. Deficits in the Mid-Atlantic States will shrink.
Much warmer than normal temperatures are forecast in February for the US West, the Baja Peninsula, the Tibetan Plateau, and far northeastern Russia, including the Kamchatka Peninsula. Nearly all of India will be warmer than normal. Paraguay is expected to be cooler than normal. Eastern Brazil should see above average rainfall, as will central Mexico and western India.
The near-term forecast through January indicates several striking changes from the prior three months: a transition in the Gulf Coast from water surplus to deficit, a broad path of deficits in the South Atlantic States, and surpluses from the Upper Midwest through the Ohio River Valley into the Northeast. In the spring normal water conditions should return to the Ohio River Valley and the Northeast, surpluses will continue to emerge in the Upper Mississippi, and deficits will moderate in the Lower Mississippi, Texas, and the South Atlantic States.
Exceptional water surpluses are forecast in southeastern Texas through November along with surpluses of lesser severity along the Gulf. Exceptional deficits in the Northern Plains States will moderate. In the West, surpluses are forecast in Idaho, nearby areas of surrounding states, and pockets of central California. Deficits are expected in: northern Colorado, Kansas, Iowa, northeastern and southernmost Texas, southern Michigan, northwestern Pennsylvania, northern Maine, southern West Virginia, and the Southeast. After November moderate surpluses are forecast for the Ohio River Valley.
After July the Northern Plains States should see a significant retreat of exceptional water deficits. Surpluses will persist in the Gulf region, diminish in the Great Lakes States, and transition to mild deficits in Virginia and North Carolina. After October moderate water surpluses will re-emerge in most of the Great Lakes States and in the Ohio River Valley, and pockets of surplus will continue to emerge in Idaho and surrounding states. Deficits in the southern states of the East Coast are expected to ratchet up slightly to moderate intensity and emerge in Florida.