Most notable in the forecast through April is the absence of widespread, intense water surpluses observed in the East in prior months. Surpluses will, however, persist in a massive path down the center of the country from Wisconsin through Texas, and moderate surpluses will emerge in the Rocky Mountains, in California from San Francisco Bay to the southern border, and along the Missouri and Colorado Rivers. Surpluses will be exceptional in central Kansas, on the Arkansas River, and in central Texas.
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The forecast through November indicates that water deficits will downgrade considerably overall leaving mild to moderate deficits, but deficits will be intense along the Arkansas River through Kansas and Colorado, western Colorado, northeastern Utah, along the Canadian River through Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle, and in the US Northeast. Areas of surplus include: Montana, the Black Hills of South Dakota, northern Nebraska, Iowa, Wisconsin, and eastern Pennsylvania.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from June 2018 through May 2019 include: the US Pacific Northwest, southern Mexico, Brazil, Chile, Central and Northern Europe, northern Africa, the Middle East, Afghanistan, and southern India. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: Tanzania, Kenya, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Laos, and Heilongjiang, China. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) run on 10 September 2018.
The forecast through September indicates that, while exceptional water deficits will diminish overall and in the Southwest and Southern Rockies in particular, moderate to severe deficits are expected in a wide path from Missouri to the Gulf. Deficits may be intense in Louisiana, along the Arkansas and Canadian Rivers, and the Pacific Northwest coast. In the Northeast, deficits will persist and spread further in Maine. Significant surpluses will persist in the Northern Rockies, and surpluses will emerge in much of Florida.
Though the extent of exceptional deficits from Missouri to the Gulf and to the Atlantic is expected to recede from March through May, exceptional deficits will persist in Arkansas, Missouri, and western Illinois, and moderate deficits will emerge throughout much of the US east of the Mississippi. Surpluses are forecast for the Pacific Northwest, Idaho, northern Nevada, Central California, western Nevada, and western Colorado and are expected to be exceptional in Idaho, parts of Central California, and along the Columbia River.
United States: Water deficits to emerge this spring in the Appalachians, the Ohio River Valley, & the Northern Plains
Overall, conditions in many parts of the US are forecast to be drier than normal. Moderate to exceptional water deficits are expected in the East through the Appalachians, the Midwest through the Ohio and Mississippi Valleys, across the Northern Plains and parts of the Central Plains, and in the Southwest. In the summer and early fall exceptional deficits are forecast on the Missouri and Yellowstone Rivers. Surpluses are forecast in Idaho and northeastern Nevada, the shared border of Minnesota and Iowa, the Canadian and Rio Grande Rivers, and southern Florida.
United States: Water deficits to emerge this Spring in Ohio, lower Mississippi Valleys, then upper Mississippi & Northwest
Overall, widespread moderate to exceptional water deficits are forecast for Montana, Wyoming, North Dakota, Minnesota, Michigan, and much of the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Surpluses are forecast for the Southern Plains and southern Florida. In April and May deficits are forecast for much of the country east of the Mississippi, and will emerge thereafter across the North, in the Central Plains, Northern Great Plains, and in the West, tracing paths along many major rivers. Though decreasing in severity, widespread deficits will persist through November.
United States: Water deficits forecast across the North, Mississippi Valley; surpluses in Texas, South Carolina
The 12-month forecast through August 2016 indicates water deficits across the northern US from eastern Oregon to Maine, with greatest severity in the Great Lakes Region. Widespread and severe deficits are also forecast in the Mississippi Valley from Minnesota to the Gulf of Mexico. Surpluses are forecast in California, the Southern Plains, and in the Southeast. Both deficits and surpluses are expected in Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, and East Texas.