Much warmer than normal temperatures are forecast in February for the US West, the Baja Peninsula, the Tibetan Plateau, and far northeastern Russia, including the Kamchatka Peninsula. Nearly all of India will be warmer than normal. Paraguay is expected to be cooler than normal. Eastern Brazil should see above average rainfall, as will central Mexico and western India.
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Exceptional water deficits are forecast to diminish considerably over the next three months except in the western Amazon Basin in Brazil and Acre, Rondônia, Mato Grosso, and Tocantins. Deficits are also expected across Brazil’s Northeast region. Elsewhere on the continent, intense deficits are expected in western Bolivia and the Gulf of Corcovado, Chile. Areas of surpluses include central Colombia; Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil; and La Pampa Province, Argentina. After February widespread surpluses will emerge in the northern Amazon Basin and Venezuela, Guyana, and Suriname.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from September 2017 through August 2018 include: Amapá, Amazonas, Tocantins, and Goiás (Brazil); Mauritania; United Arab Emirates; Cambodia; Fujian and Inner Mongolia (China); and, South Australia and Tasmania (Australia). Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: Bangladesh; Tripura and Mizoram (India), western Myanmar; Hubei (China); Poland; and European Russia. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) run on 7 December 2017.
The December Outlook indicates that Alaska is forecast to be warmer than normal, especially the western half of the state where temperatures are expected to be the hottest in 20 to 40 years. Malaysia, Indonesia, Papua, and New Zealand also stand out with intense hot anomalies predicted. Much wetter than normal conditions are forecast for northern Ukraine and across the border into the Don River Basin and parts of the Volga Basin in Russia.
A significant retreat of water deficits is forecast October through June, but through December exceptional deficits are expected in northernmost Brazil and into neighboring countries. Deficits are also forecast north of Lake Titicaca in Peru through La Paz and Cochabamba, Bolivia and into Argentina. Widespread, primarily moderate deficits are predicted in much of eastern Brazil, which may be more severe along the coast of the State of São Paulo. Surpluses are forecast in central Colombia, northern Peru, northern Bolivia, eastern Argentina, Uruguay, and O’Higgins Lake in Patagonia. After December widespread moderate surpluses are forecast in the northern Amazon Basin
The near-term forecast indicates that widespread water deficits will persist, though moderate, in Brazil. However, intense deficits are forecast for: Brazil’s far north into Suriname and French Guiana; Ceará and Rio Grande do Norte; north-central and southern Venezuela; Cochabamba, Bolivia; northern Chile; and Tierra del Fuego. Surpluses will persist in La Pampa and Buenos Aires Provinces, Argentina, and will emerge in Uruguay. After November deficits will retreat to eastern Brazil and surpluses will emerge in the northern Amazon Basin.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from June 2017 through May 2018 include: Montana (US), Nayarit (Mexico), Amapá (Brazil), Italy, the Arabian Peninsula, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh (India), Cambodia, Mongolia, and Tasmania (Australia). Water surpluses are forecast for: US Gulf Coast, La Pampa (Argentina), Tanzania, Bangladesh, Tripura and Mizoram (India), western Myanmar, Laos, Jiangxi and Guangxi (China), and Transvolga (Russia). This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) Global Water Monitor and Forecast issued 8 September 2017.
Though a slight reduction in the extent of exceptional deficits is expected, the forecast for the next three months indicates a basic pattern of water conditions similar to observed conditions in the prior three months which includes widespread, intense deficits in most of Brazil north of Rio de Janeiro and surpluses in La Pampa Province, Argentina. In addition, a transition from surplus to deficit is forecast in Brazilian states south of Rio and in eastern Paraguay. After October deficits across northern South America are forecast to shrink considerably.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from May 2017 through April 2018 include: Brazil, Belgium, Spain, Italy, Finland, northern Africa, Gabon, Somalia, Saudi Arabia, Turkmenistan, Cambodia, Mongolia, and Tasmania. Water surpluses are forecast for: La Pampa (Argentina), Tanzania, western Russia, Bangladesh, Manipur and Mizoram (India), and eastern Thailand. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) Global Water Monitor and Forecast issued 9 August 2017.
South America: Exceptional water deficits in Brazil forecast to retreat to the north after September
Recently observed conditions across the whole of South America are expected to persist through September with a slight decrease in the extent of exceptional water deficits in much of Brazil north of Rio de Janeiro. Surpluses in eastern Paraguay and southern Brazil should transition to near-normal conditions during this period, but exceptional surpluses are expected to persist in La Pampa and Buenos Aires Provinces in Argentina. After September conditions are forecast to improve across the continent though exceptional water deficits will persist in Amapá and northern Pará, Brazil and in nearby northern regions.