The forecast through June indicates that exceptional deficits in Mongolia, Inner Mongolia, and Xinjiang will diminish considerably. Deficits will increase in Northeast China; downgrade to mild in Shandong; and continue to emerge in the Southeast. Surpluses in the Yangtze Basin will diminish considerably, though exceptional surplus conditions are forecast for the Han River Basin. Hainan will transition from surplus to moderate deficit, as will Guangxi. Moderate deficit is forecast for North Korea. After June, water anomalies in China and Mongolia will downgrade overall.
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Exceptional water deficits in Mongolia and into China will increase. Moderate deficits will continue to emerge in Northeast China and North Korea. Deficits in South Korea will downgrade, though severe conditions will persist around Seoul. In Southeast China, deficits will spread and upgrade in Fujian and Jiangxi, becoming severe, and moderate deficits will emerge along the Yangtze River. Exceptional deficits will increase in Hunan and Guizhou, and deficits in Yunnan will become extreme. Exceptional surplus will persist in the Han River watershed. Moderate surplus is forecast the Huai River.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from December 2017 through November 2018 include: the US West, Southwest, and South Atlantic States; southern Venezuela; Uruguay; northeastern Argentina; Finland; northern Africa and Gabon; and southern Iraq. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: the Ohio River Valley and western Montana (US); Paraguay; Tanzania and Ethiopia; Ireland; Central and Eastern Europe; and European Russia. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) run on 7 March 2018.
Exceptional water deficits will increase in Mongolia and China through April, creating a vast stretch from Xinjiang through Inner Mongolia. Exceptional deficits will emerge in Liaoning and extreme deficits in Hunan. Deficits are forecast to spread on the Korean Peninsula and may be intense near Seoul. Conditions of intense surplus remain in the forecast from Shanghai west through the Han River (Hanjiang) watershed, and exceptional surpluses will continue to emerge in northern Sichuan and Qinghai. Moderate to severe surpluses will continue to emerge around the Gulf of Tonkin and in Hainan.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from November 2017 through October 2018 include: California, Nevada, Arizona, Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi, Venezuela, French Guiana, Gabon, Mongolia, and Tasmania. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: Ireland, Poland, European Russia, Tanzania, and Philippines. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) run on 6 February 2018.
The near-term forecast indicates a vast stretch of exceptional water deficit from Xinjiang through southern Mongolia and eastern Inner Mongolia, and in Shandong, China. Severe to extreme deficits will continue to emerge in South Korea, and the extent of deficits in Fujian and Guangdong will increase somewhat. Exceptional surpluses will continue to emerge in the Han River (Hanjiang) watersheds and the eastern stretch of the Ordos Loop of the Yellow (Huang) River. After March exceptional deficits and surpluses will retreat but some areas of intense anomalies will persist.
The near-term forecast shows a vast stretch of exceptional water deficits from southern Mongolia into Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia, China. Intense deficits are expected to emerge in Shandong, China, and will continue to emerge in South Korea. Less severe deficits are forecast for southeastern China and western Taiwan. Surpluses in the Han (Hanjiang) and Huai River watersheds will remain widespread and exceptional. Surpluses are also forecast for Shanghai, the eastern stretch of the Ordos Loop of the Yellow (Huang) River, northern Sichuan, Qinghai, central Tibet, and Hainan.
Water surpluses in the Lower Yangtze are expected to become widespread and exceptional. Exceptional surpluses are also forecast for the Middle and Upper Yellow River, Qinghai, and western Tibet. Intense deficits will continue to emerge in Mongolia and Inner Mongolia, deficits in South Korea will increase, and deficits in southeastern China will moderate, except in Fujian. After January exceptional deficits will continue to emerge to form a vast stretch across much of Mongolia and Inner Mongolia. Deficits will emerge around the Bohai Sea, and surpluses in the Lower Yangtze will diminish.
Though there are several regions with a July forecast of significant precipitation anomalies - India's Western Ghats will be much drier than normal and northern Argentina will be much wetter - the temperature forecast has more severe and widespread anomalies. The African Sahel, Saudi Arabia, and Mongolia are among the numerous regions forecast to see much warmer than normal temperatures.
Mixed conditions across East Asia are expected to continue over the next three months with moderate water deficits in China’s southern provinces of Guizhou and Guangxi persisting throughout the forecast period. Deficits on the Korean peninsula may shift from the vicinity of Incheon and Seoul to cover the majority of North Korea. Northeastern China is expected to develop severe to exceptional deficits that may intensify by the December through February 2018 period. Surpluses are indicated in the near-term for western Tibet but moderating over the extended forecast.