The forecast through May indicates an increase in the extent of water deficits overall. Though surpluses are forecast for Austria, Switzerland, Norway, and northwestern Sweden, much of the rest of Europe can expect deficit conditions. Exceptional deficits will persist in Finland, southern Sweden, Estonia, Latvia, eastern Slovenia, and Croatia. Severe deficits will be widespread in Portugal, Spain, France, and Hungary. Pockets of intense deficit are forecast for many other regions.
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Exceptional water surpluses in European Russia will shrink and downgrade. The Ob River Basin will transition from surplus to deficit, with a block of exceptional deficit in the Tobol River watershed south of the city of Tyumen. Intense surpluses are expected to persist around the city of Krasnoyarsk on the Yenisei River. Deficits will emerge in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, and exceptional deficits in the Fergana Valley, western Kyrgyzstan, and southern Tajikistan. Severe deficits are forecast Kazakhstan along the Ural River in the west leading into Orenburg, Russia.
In the near-term through May, water surplus in Central and Eastern Europe and European Russia is expected to shrink and downgrade, though remain widespread. In France and the UK, however, surpluses will increase in extent. Exceptional deficits will continue to emerge in Finland, Estonia, Latvia, and a pocket in central Sweden. A band of deficit conditions will persist across southern Italy, but deficits on the Iberian Peninsula will shrink and downgrade – with some surplus conditions emerging. After May, the forecast indicates a transition away from surplus to mild deficit in many areas.
Exceptional water surplus in European Russia will shrink and downgrade, though widespread surpluses will continue to emerge and will remain intense from St. Petersburg to the Rybinsk Reservoir and in Murmansk. Exceptional surpluses will emerge in the Vakh River Basin stretching east across the Yenisei River between the Angara and Podkamennaya Tunguska Rivers. Deficits near Yekaterinburg will upgrade, deficits around Yamal will downgrade, and deficits in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan will moderate. Kazakhstan will transition from surplus to deficit. After April, much of the region will transition to deficits of varying severity.
Exceptional water surpluses will retreat but widespread surpluses will persist in European Russia and in parts of Central and Eastern Europe. Surpluses will emerge in southern Norway and northern Sweden. Intense deficits will persist in Estonia, Latvia, central Finland, and central Sweden. Deficits in southern France and the Mediterranean are expected to moderate but severe deficits will continue in Portugal, and deficits will emerge in Albania and eastern Greece. After April, much of Central and Eastern Europe will transition away from surplus to moderate deficit, joining southern Europe.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from November 2017 through October 2018 include: California, Nevada, Arizona, Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi, Venezuela, French Guiana, Gabon, Mongolia, and Tasmania. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: Ireland, Poland, European Russia, Tanzania, and Philippines. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) run on 6 February 2018.
Water surpluses reaching exceptional intensity are forecast in western European Russia, the Upper Ob River and Tom River Basins, and the Transvolga Region, where conditions of both deficit and surplus may emerge. Surpluses are also forecast for many parts of Kazakhstan, and in Kyrgyzstan. Severe to extreme deficits are forecast for the Yamal Peninsula and across the Gulf of Ob. Intense deficits in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan are expected to diminish considerably leaving only mild deficits through December.
Exceptional water deficits are expected to nearly disappear from October on, but pockets will remain through December in central Finland and the Norwegian Sea coast. Moderate to severe deficits are forecast for the remainder of Finland and moderate deficits for much of Southern Europe. A vast expanse of surpluses is forecast in European Russia, and surpluses are also predicted in Poland, Slovenia, Croatia, UK, and southern Norway. From January through March surpluses are forecast to increase across Northern Europe, particularly in European Russia, while deficits persist across Southern Europe.
Water surpluses of varying intensity are forecast in Russia from western European Russia through the Western Siberian Plain through February 2018 or longer, and are expected to be exceptional in the TransVolga region and in the Upper Ob River Basin surrounding Novosibirsk. Exceptional surpluses in Kazakhstan will transition to conditions of both deficit and surplus through February. Surpluses are forecast for Kyrgyzstan, especially Bishkek. Deficits in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan are forecast to moderate somewhat in the near-term but persist, diminishing after November.
The extent of exceptional water deficits is expected to diminish considerably in the coming months though southern Europe will remain in moderate deficit through April 2018. Some relief is in the near-term forecast, particularly for Italy, Spain, Portugal, and Belgium, as exceptional deficits shrink through October, though Finland will remain in the grip of intense deficits. Surpluses are forecast for western Russia, the border of Romania and Moldova, and a pocket in north-central Germany.