Water surpluses reaching exceptional intensity are forecast in western European Russia, the Upper Ob River and Tom River Basins, and the Transvolga Region, where conditions of both deficit and surplus may emerge. Surpluses are also forecast for many parts of Kazakhstan, and in Kyrgyzstan. Severe to extreme deficits are forecast for the Yamal Peninsula and across the Gulf of Ob. Intense deficits in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan are expected to diminish considerably leaving only mild deficits through December.
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Water surpluses of varying intensity are forecast in Russia from western European Russia through the Western Siberian Plain through February 2018 or longer, and are expected to be exceptional in the TransVolga region and in the Upper Ob River Basin surrounding Novosibirsk. Exceptional surpluses in Kazakhstan will transition to conditions of both deficit and surplus through February. Surpluses are forecast for Kyrgyzstan, especially Bishkek. Deficits in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan are forecast to moderate somewhat in the near-term but persist, diminishing after November.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from June 2017 through May 2018 include: Montana (US), Nayarit (Mexico), Amapá (Brazil), Italy, the Arabian Peninsula, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh (India), Cambodia, Mongolia, and Tasmania (Australia). Water surpluses are forecast for: US Gulf Coast, La Pampa (Argentina), Tanzania, Bangladesh, Tripura and Mizoram (India), western Myanmar, Laos, Jiangxi and Guangxi (China), and Transvolga (Russia). This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) Global Water Monitor and Forecast issued 8 September 2017.
Water surpluses of varying intensity are forecast in Russia stretching from western European Russia to the Western Siberian Plain through April 2018 and are expected to be exceptional in large pockets of the Volga Basin and between the Upper Ob and Tom Rivers surrounding Novosibirsk from August 2017 through January 2018. In the near-term, August through October, deficit conditions in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan are expected to ameliorate, leaving modest deficits. Exceptional surpluses will continue to emerge in northern Kyrgyzstan, including Bishkek.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from May 2017 through April 2018 include: Brazil, Belgium, Spain, Italy, Finland, northern Africa, Gabon, Somalia, Saudi Arabia, Turkmenistan, Cambodia, Mongolia, and Tasmania. Water surpluses are forecast for: La Pampa (Argentina), Tanzania, western Russia, Bangladesh, Manipur and Mizoram (India), and eastern Thailand. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) Global Water Monitor and Forecast issued 9 August 2017.
Drier than normal conditions will persist in many parts of northern Russia from the White Sea past the Central Siberian Plateau through August 2017, though the extent of exceptional deficits will diminish somewhat. Both surpluses and deficits are forecast for the Ural River watershed in northwestern Kazakhstan, and surpluses are forecast for central and eastern Kazakhstan. Overall, moderate deficits are forecast for Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, and surpluses in Kyrgyzstan.