The forecast through August indicates widespread water deficits of varying severity in Central, Eastern, and Northern Europe, with intense deficits sprinkled throughout but especially prevalent in Finland, Estonia, and Latvia. Surpluses will persist on the Iberian Peninsula and may be exceptional between the Tajo and Guadiana Rivers, and from Toledo south to Granada. In European Russia, surpluses ranging from moderate to exceptional are forecast for the Don River Basin and much of the Volga River Basin.
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Water surpluses will retreat in Central Europe and the Balkans as deficits emerge. Deficits are also forecast for Northern Europe with exceptional deficits in Finland, Estonia, and Latvia. Intense surpluses are forecast for Hungary and for eastern Ukraine into Russia, with both deficits and surpluses in European Russia. Surpluses will persist on the Iberian Peninsula but retreat in France, with deficits emerging in Auvergne. Moderate surpluses will persist in Ireland, England, and Normandy.
Exceptional water surplus in European Russia will shrink and downgrade, though widespread surpluses will continue to emerge and will remain intense from St. Petersburg to the Rybinsk Reservoir and in Murmansk. Exceptional surpluses will emerge in the Vakh River Basin stretching east across the Yenisei River between the Angara and Podkamennaya Tunguska Rivers. Deficits near Yekaterinburg will upgrade, deficits around Yamal will downgrade, and deficits in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan will moderate. Kazakhstan will transition from surplus to deficit. After April, much of the region will transition to deficits of varying severity.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from November 2017 through October 2018 include: California, Nevada, Arizona, Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi, Venezuela, French Guiana, Gabon, Mongolia, and Tasmania. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: Ireland, Poland, European Russia, Tanzania, and Philippines. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) run on 6 February 2018.
The forecast through March indicates exceptional surpluses in European Russia, along the Middle Ob River, the Tom River Basin, and Aktobe Region, Kazakhstan. Surpluses are also forecast for much of the Yenisei River. Exceptional deficits are expected in the Yamal Peninsula. Intense deficits are forecast for Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. After March, surpluses in Russia are forecast to diminish. Deficits will downgrade in Yamal, persist in Turkmenistan, and spread in Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. Moderate deficits will emerge in the Caucasus, western Kyrgyzstan and western Tajikistan.
In the near-term, surpluses are forecast in Russia along the Sukona River; the Upper Volga River, Volga Uplands, Lower Volga, and Transvolga Region; and the Ob, Vakh, and Tom Rivers. Deficits will persist in the Yamal Peninsula and across the Gulf of Ob. Exceptional surpluses will continue to emerge in Aktobe, Kostanay, and western Akmola Regions in Kazakhstan but widespread intense deficits will emerge in the northeastern part of the country. Deficits in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan are expected to moderate. After February, deficits will spread in Central Asia and Russia.
In the near-term water, surpluses reaching exceptional intensity will continue to emerge in Russia’s Volga River Basin and on the Ob, Vakh, and Tom Rivers, and in Aktobe, northern Kostanay, and western Akmola Regions, Kazakhstan. Exceptional deficits will increase in Yamal, Russia. Moderate to severe deficits are expected in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. In the spring, Volga Basin surpluses should downgrade, though remain widespread. Surpluses will persist between the Tom and Yenisei Rivers, and along the Ob and Irtysh Rivers. Severe deficits will continue to emerge in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.