The forecast through February 2026 expects deficits in Central and Eastern Europe, Central Asia, and the Levant. Surpluses are expected in the western Amazon, the Sahel and southern Africa, and northeastern Australia.
Severe to exceptional surpluses will remain throughout Queensland. Exceptional deficits will occur in portions of Victoria, Western Australia, Tasmania, and New Zealand.
Exceptional deficits will occur in northwestern and southeastern China, widespread throughout the Yangtze River Basin. Isolated pockets of surplus will affect portions of central and northeastern China.
Exceptional surpluses throughout Maritime Southeast Asia will mostly diminish, though pockets of severe to exceptional deficits will persist in portions of the Philippines, Indonesia, Papua, West Papua, and New Guinea.
Exceptional water deficits are forecast for much of northern and central Brazil from July into October. From October to December deficits will diminish in central Brazilian states but persist across the north, and widespread deficits will emerge in other countries in northern South America. Deficits will also persist in Peru, Chile, and southern Argentina.
Exceptional water deficits are forecast to persist across central and much of northern Brazil through August. Surpluses are forecast to emerge in Sao Paulo. Thereafter and through November the extent of exceptional deficits in Brazil will diminish, but deficits of varying severity will continue to emerge and increase in extent throughout northern South America.
The forecast continues to indicate widespread and in many areas exceptional water deficits across northern South America, particularly in the Amazon Basin. Water surpluses are forecast May through July in Venezuela’s Orinoco and Caroni River Basins and in much of Guyana. Water surpluses will persist in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil; Uruguay; and central Argentina.
Overall, exceptional water deficits are forecast to persist across northern South America, particularly in the Amazon Basin. Deficits are also forecast in Peru and Chile. Water surpluses are forecast in Paraguay; Uruguay; the Ibara Wetlands and Buenos Aires, Argentina; and Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil.
Exceptional water deficits are forecast to persist across northern South America. Deficits in Colombia and Venezuela may moderate somewhat March through May, and northwestern Venezuela may transition from deficits to exceptional surpluses. Thereafter, deficits are forecast to re-emerge as exceptional drought June through November across much of northern South America. Severe to exceptional surpluses are forecast in Paraguay, across its eastern border into southern Brazil, and in central Argentina.
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