Exceptional water surpluses are forecast in north central Kazakhstan; farther west between the Ural and Emba Rivers northeast of the Caspian Sea; and, along rivers elsewhere in Kazakhstan. Exceptional surpluses are also forecast in Russia in an area northwest of Kazakhstan, from the Volga River through the Ural Mountains. Water deficits are expected in Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, western Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.
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The outlook for Canada indicates widespread water deficits of varying severity across the country with pockets of exceptional deficits in parts of British Columbia, Alberta, Manitoba, Ontario, Quebec, and Newfoundland.
Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Moderate water deficits to continue in much of Mexico, emerge in Guatemala
Overall much of Mexico will experience drier than normal conditions. However, exceptional deficits in Baja and across the Gulf of California observed for the past three months are forecast to diminish in the months ahead. From August through October deficits will increase in severity in the state of Veracruz in a wide inland arc from the Gulf of Mexico. Deficits are also forecast during this period for eastern Jamaica and in Haiti. Moderate deficits are forecast to emerge in Guatemala and El Salvador.
Water deficits are forecast in southern Turkey, Cyprus, Gaza, West Bank, Israel, Qatar, and United Arab Emirates. Surpluses are expected to persist along the Iraq-Iran border and in a few pockets on Oman’s coast. Both deficits and surpluses are forecast in Jordan, Syria, Iraq, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Yemen. Exceptional deficits will emerge in May in Qatar and United Arab Emirates, persisting with varying extent and severity through October.
Water deficits are forecast to linger for the next six months across parts of northern Australia – particularly Arnhem Land and along the Gulf of Carpentaria – and also from Perth southward; in Tasmania; on North Island, New Zealand; and in New Caledonia. A transition from moderate deficits to moderate surpluses in the Darling and Murray Rivers and their tributaries is forecast from August on.
Water deficits will persist in parts of Mediterranean Europe including southern Spain and Portugal, Sardinia, Sicily, southern Greece, and Crete. Surpluses will persist in the United Kingdom and Ireland. Central and Eastern Europe are transitioning from surplus to deficits. Exceptional deficits are forecast for Finland and the Baltics.
The overall outlook for much of the United States indicates only moderate water anomalies for much of the country. However the forecast for May through July includes the emergence of some severe deficits in the Northeast, along the East Coast, and in the Upper Midwest which will persist through October. Exceptional water deficits will also persist in much of southern California and southwestern Arizona. Severe to exceptional surpluses are forecast in northeastern Nevada and across the border into Idaho, eastern Texas, parts of Nebraska, scattered pockets in the Northwest, south-central Alaska, and the western half of the island of Hawaii.
Widespread moderate to exceptional water surpluses are forecast to persist in southeast China and the Yangtze River. Surpluses are also forecast along the Yellow River beginning in May, which may become extreme in June. A transition to moderate deficits is forecast for southeast China in the later months. Moderate deficits are forecast in Mongolia, and both deficits and surpluses are forecast in western regions of China including the Tibetan Plateau.
Water deficits across North Africa are forecast to persist though diminish in severity. Deficits will also persist across much of southern Africa, especially South Africa, Namibia, Zambia, Malawi, and Mozambique. Surpluses are expected in northern Mozambique, Tanzania, Uganda, Kenya, and Ethiopia.
The forecast indicates a transition in India from widespread and exceptional water deficits throughout the country to surpluses in India’s western midsection, in the Ganges Basin, and near Chennai. Surpluses are also forecast in India’s northernmost states and in much of Bangladesh. In general, water surpluses are forecast for eastern Afghanistan and deficits in the west. Deficits are expected to persist in southern Pakistan, and both deficits and surpluses are expected in the north.