*Water Watch Lists
ISciences staff
ISciences Worldwide Water Watch List June 2025

The forecast through February 2026 expects deficits in Central and Eastern Europe, Central Asia, and the Levant. Surpluses are expected in the western Amazon, the Sahel and southern Africa, and northeastern Australia.

ISciences Worldwide Water Watch List June 2025
Australia & New Zealand
ISciences staff
Australia & New Zealand: Surpluses spread ...

Severe to exceptional surpluses will remain throughout Queensland. Exceptional deficits will occur in portions of Victoria, Western Australia, Tasmania, and New Zealand. 

Australia & New Zealand: Surpluses spread throughout Queensland
East Asia
ISciences staff
East Asia: Deficits continue in NW China, ...

Exceptional deficits will occur in northwestern and southeastern China, widespread throughout the Yangtze River Basin. Isolated pockets of surplus will affect portions of central and northeastern China. 

East Asia: Deficits continue in NW China, Yangtze River Basin
Southeast Asia & Pacific
ISciences staff
Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Deficits ...

Exceptional surpluses throughout Maritime Southeast Asia will mostly diminish, though pockets of severe to exceptional deficits will persist in portions of the Philippines, Indonesia, Papua, West Papua, and New Guinea. 

Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Deficits persist in Maritime SE Asia
South Asia
ISciences staff
South Asia: Deficits remain in Afghanistan, ...

Exceptional surpluses in India will mostly dissipate, transitioning to moderate to severe surpluses. Exceptional deficits will remain in Afghanistan and Pakistan. 

South Asia: Deficits remain in Afghanistan, Pakistan, surpluses persist in India

Middle East: Widespread deficits forecast to persist, esp Israel & Lebanon

Middle East: Widespread deficits forecast to persist, esp Israel & Lebanon

Widespread exceptional deficits observed in the prior three months are expected to moderate considerably through February, though extreme deficits are in the forecast for Lebanon and Israel. Deficits of slightly lesser intensity, but still severe, are forecast for southeastern Turkey, Syria, pockets throughout Iraq, central Iran, northern Saudi Arabia, and southwestern Yemen. Primarily moderate deficits are forecast nearly everywhere else. After February, deficits on the Arabian Peninsula are expected to ratchet up in intensity, and moderate deficits will continue to emerge in Turkey. 

Africa: Water deficits to recede in southern Africa; surpluses in Tanzania

Africa: Water deficits to recede in southern Africa; surpluses in Tanzania

The near-term forecast indicates continued improvement in water conditions in southern Africa as exceptional deficits nearly disappear. Intense deficits are, however, expected in Lesotho. Deficits are forecast across northern Africa including pockets of exceptional deficit in western Mauritania through Guinea-Bissau, scattered around the Gulf of Guinea, small pockets across the southern Sahara, and in southeastern Ethiopia. Surpluses are expected in southern Sudan, South Sudan, western Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania, western DRC, and western CAR into Cameroon. After February intense deficits will emerge in the north.

South Asia: Widespread water deficits forecast in India, esp Madhya Pradesh & Karnataka

South Asia: Widespread water deficits forecast in India, esp Madhya Pradesh & Karnataka

Through May 2018 intense water deficits are forecast in central India and intense water surpluses in Bangladesh. In the near-term through February, deficits are forecast throughout most of India with exceptional deficits expected in eastern Gujarat and Karnataka. Exceptional surpluses are expected in West Bengal, Tripura, Mizoram, eastern Jammu and Kashmir, and the Pennar River Basin in southern India. Moderate deficits are forecast for Pakistan and Afghanistan with some pockets of exceptional deficit in the northeast. Surpluses are forecast for western Bhutan and much of Nepal.

South America: Intense water deficits to emerge in Rio Grande do Norte, Paraiba, Pernambuco

South America: Intense water deficits to emerge in Rio Grande do Norte, Paraiba, Pernambuco

Exceptional water deficits are forecast to diminish considerably over the next three months except in the western Amazon Basin in Brazil and Acre, Rondônia, Mato Grosso, and Tocantins. Deficits are also expected across Brazil’s Northeast region. Elsewhere on the continent, intense deficits are expected in western Bolivia and the Gulf of Corcovado, Chile. Areas of surpluses include central Colombia; Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil; and La Pampa Province, Argentina. After February widespread surpluses will emerge in the northern Amazon Basin and Venezuela, Guyana, and Suriname.

Southeast Asia & the Pacific: Intense water surpluses to persist in Vietnam

Southeast Asia & the Pacific: Intense water surpluses to persist in Vietnam

The forecast over the next six month indicates a gradual transition from predominantly surplus conditions to deficit, though western Cambodia and Papua New Guinea stand in contrast with current deficit conditions persisting throughout the period. In the near-term through February surpluses will diminish in Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines, and Papua, but will persist in Myanmar, Laos, and Vietnam. After February deficits will emerge throughout Malaysia and Indonesia, diminish in western Cambodia, and moderate in Papua New Guinea.

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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