The forecast through February 2026 expects deficits in Central and Eastern Europe, Central Asia, and the Levant. Surpluses are expected in the western Amazon, the Sahel and southern Africa, and northeastern Australia.
Severe to exceptional surpluses will remain throughout Queensland. Exceptional deficits will occur in portions of Victoria, Western Australia, Tasmania, and New Zealand.
Exceptional deficits will occur in northwestern and southeastern China, widespread throughout the Yangtze River Basin. Isolated pockets of surplus will affect portions of central and northeastern China.
Exceptional surpluses throughout Maritime Southeast Asia will mostly diminish, though pockets of severe to exceptional deficits will persist in portions of the Philippines, Indonesia, Papua, West Papua, and New Guinea.
The forecast through December indicates that intense water deficits which have dominated much of Australia in prior months will retreat from most regions except the southeast. Deficits will be exceptional in Tasmania, and severe to exceptional along the southeast coast from Adelaide through Victoria and past Canberra. Moderate to severe deficits are forecast for New Zealand. Deficits in New Caledonia will moderate.
The forecast through December indicates many areas of water surplus including Iowa and surrounding states, the Ohio River Basin, eastern Pennsylvania, and Texas. Surpluses will be intense in Iowa and Pennsylvania. Deficits are expected in the Southeast, primarily moderate but more intense in Florida surrounding Lake Okeechobee. Intense deficits are also forecast along the Arkansas River, and in Colorado, and north-central Utah. Other areas of deficits include the Canadian River, the Rio Grande through New Mexico, and Maine.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from July 2018 through June 2019 include: Germany, Finland, southern Iraq, western Cambodia, Mato Grosso and São Paulo (Brazil), Karachi (Pakistan), and southeastern Australia. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: Pennsylvania and Iowa (US), Uruguay, Myanmar, Vietnam, and Heilongjiang (China). This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) run on 11 October 2018.
Warmer than normal temperatures are forecast for a vast stretch of Russia east of the Ural Mountains, through the Central Siberian Plateau and leading south to the Sea of Japan, where anomalies will be intense. Similar conditions are expected across the border in China’s Northeastern Plain. The US Southwest can expect much wetter than normal conditions.
The forecast through November indicates that water deficits will downgrade considerably overall leaving mild to moderate deficits, but deficits will be intense along the Arkansas River through Kansas and Colorado, western Colorado, northeastern Utah, along the Canadian River through Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle, and in the US Northeast. Areas of surplus include: Montana, the Black Hills of South Dakota, northern Nebraska, Iowa, Wisconsin, and eastern Pennsylvania.
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