The forecast through February 2026 expects deficits in Central and Eastern Europe, Central Asia, and the Levant. Surpluses are expected in the western Amazon, the Sahel and southern Africa, and northeastern Australia.
Severe to exceptional surpluses will remain throughout Queensland. Exceptional deficits will occur in portions of Victoria, Western Australia, Tasmania, and New Zealand.
Exceptional deficits will occur in northwestern and southeastern China, widespread throughout the Yangtze River Basin. Isolated pockets of surplus will affect portions of central and northeastern China.
Exceptional surpluses throughout Maritime Southeast Asia will mostly diminish, though pockets of severe to exceptional deficits will persist in portions of the Philippines, Indonesia, Papua, West Papua, and New Guinea.
The forecast through October indicates normal water conditions for many parts of India as deficits nearly disappear. Surpluses are forecast in the far north and northeast, the western Gangetic Plain, Rajasthan, along Gujarat’s northern border, and southeastern Maharashtra. Widespread surpluses will persist across central Afghanistan, in northern Pakistan and along rivers, in central Nepal, and throughout Bangladesh.
The forecast through October indicates that water deficits will shrink and downgrade considerably in Thailand, and surpluses will shrink and downgrade in Cambodia, Laos, and Vietnam. Surpluses in Myanmar will remain intense in the west and south. Severe deficits will emerge in Malaysia and Indonesia.
The forecast through October indicates moderate to exceptional water deficits in a vast stretch of eastern Australia from Rockhampton, Queensland reaching south to Melbourne. Intense deficits are forecast in pockets of Tasmania, the southwestern tip of Western Australia, Northern Territory’s Top End, and New Caledonia.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from May 2019 through April 2020 include: Canada, French Guiana, Chile, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Egypt, Libya, Uzbekistan, and New Caledonia. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: the United States, Syria, southern Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, and southeastern China. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model v2 (WSIMv2) run on 5 August 2019
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