The forecast through February 2026 expects deficits in Central and Eastern Europe, Central Asia, and the Levant. Surpluses are expected in the western Amazon, the Sahel and southern Africa, and northeastern Australia.
Severe to exceptional surpluses will remain throughout Queensland. Exceptional deficits will occur in portions of Victoria, Western Australia, Tasmania, and New Zealand.
Exceptional deficits will occur in northwestern and southeastern China, widespread throughout the Yangtze River Basin. Isolated pockets of surplus will affect portions of central and northeastern China.
Exceptional surpluses throughout Maritime Southeast Asia will mostly diminish, though pockets of severe to exceptional deficits will persist in portions of the Philippines, Indonesia, Papua, West Papua, and New Guinea.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period November 2019 through October 2020 include: Quebec (Canada), Chile, Brazil, Finland, Ukraine, Egypt, and Thailand. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: The Dakotas (US), Tanzania, Kenya, UK, Northern European Russia, and India. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model v2 (WSIMv2) run on 5 February 2020.
The February 2020 Outlook indicates exceptionally hotter than normal temperatures across a vast stretch from the Dnieper River in eastern Belarus past the Urals in Russia and well into the Western Siberian Plain through much of the Ob River Watershed. Exceptionally wetter than normal conditions are forecast for the Mahanadi River Basin in Chhattisgarh, India, and in southern Hunan, China.
The forecast through March 2020 indicates that water surpluses of varying intensity will continue to dominate the breadth of India with intense anomalies in central Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, western Maharashtra, south-central Karnataka, central Chhattisgarh, and the Far East. Surpluses are also forecast for Bangladesh, Nepal, Bhutan, Sri Lanka, rivers in Pakistan, and central Afghanistan.
The forecast through March 2020 indicates persistent, widespread water surpluses in the Plains States and Upper Midwest with exceptional anomalies in the Dakotas and central Nebraska. Intense deficits will persist in central Colorado and the Salmon River Mountains in Idaho, and deficits will emerge in eastern Texas. Moderate surpluses are forecast for several states in U.S. Southeast.
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