The forecast indicates that intense surplus will occur in most northern and central regions of Australia, with exceptional deficits diminishing in portions of the country near its western coast. Exceptional deficits are expected to emerge in Tasmania, as well as in pockets across New Zealand.
The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits will mostly dissipate in northeastern China, but continue in northern, southern, and northwestern portions of the country. Exceptional surplus is expected to diminish in southwestern China, though moderate to severe surpluses may continue in eastern regions of the country.
The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits in Mainland Southeast Asia will persist but lessen in size, while intense surpluses will expand throughout Maritime Southeast Asia.
The forecast anticipates a widespread emergence of surplus in India, with the most intense concentrations appearing in central, southern, and eastern regions of the country. Exceptional deficits are expected in regions of Afghanistan and Pakistan.
The forecast expects exceptional deficits in western and eastern Russia to mostly diminish, but still linger in isolated areas. Similar deficits are expected to continue northwest of Lake Baikal. Intense surplus is anticipated in regions of northern Kazakhstan and northeastern Russia, as are exceptional deficits in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.
The forecast through March 2020 indicates persistent, widespread water surpluses in the Plains States and Upper Midwest with exceptional anomalies in the Dakotas and central Nebraska. Intense deficits will persist in central Colorado and the Salmon River Mountains in Idaho, and deficits will emerge in eastern Texas. Moderate surpluses are forecast for several states in U.S. Southeast.
Through December, widespread water surpluses of varying intensity will persist in the Plains States and the Upper Midwest, forming a column from North Dakota through northern Oklahoma. Surpluses will be extreme to exceptional in the Dakotas. Primarily moderate deficits are forecast from the Ohio River Valley to the Atlantic and south to the Gulf, but anomalies will be intense in West Virginia and states to the east. Intense deficits are also forecast for central and southeastern Colorado.
The near-term forecast through January indicates several striking changes from the prior three months: a transition in the Gulf Coast from water surplus to deficit, a broad path of deficits in the South Atlantic States, and surpluses from the Upper Midwest through the Ohio River Valley into the Northeast. In the spring normal water conditions should return to the Ohio River Valley and the Northeast, surpluses will continue to emerge in the Upper Mississippi, and deficits will moderate in the Lower Mississippi, Texas, and the South Atlantic States.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from August 2017 through July 2018 include: Amapá, Amazonas, and Maranhão (Brazil); Madhya Pradesh and Haryana (India); Cambodia; Fujian and Inner Mongolia (China); Mongolia; Papua New Guinea; and, South Australia and Tasmania (Australia). Areas with a forecast of significant water surpluses include: Bangladesh; Tripura, Mizoram, and Manipur (India), western Myanmar; the Yangtze River (China); Poland; and European Russia. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) issued 8 November 2017.
The outlook for the United States indicates widespread exceptional water deficits throughout the Northeast from July through September. Deficits of varying severity are also forecast for parts of the Midwest and Upper Midwest, the Pacific Northwest, and California. Widespread water surpluses are expected in eastern Texas and surpluses are also forecast in West Virginia and Nebraska. After September deficits will diminish with the exception of the Missouri and Yellowstone Rivers. Surpluses in Texas will diminish. Widespread surpluses are forecast to emerge in Wisconsin and across the Mississippi River into Minnesota.
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