The forecast through February 2026 expects deficits in Central and Eastern Europe, Central Asia, and the Levant. Surpluses are expected in the western Amazon, the Sahel and southern Africa, and northeastern Australia.
Severe to exceptional surpluses will remain throughout Queensland. Exceptional deficits will occur in portions of Victoria, Western Australia, Tasmania, and New Zealand.
Exceptional deficits will occur in northwestern and southeastern China, widespread throughout the Yangtze River Basin. Isolated pockets of surplus will affect portions of central and northeastern China.
Exceptional surpluses throughout Maritime Southeast Asia will mostly diminish, though pockets of severe to exceptional deficits will persist in portions of the Philippines, Indonesia, Papua, West Papua, and New Guinea.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period of February 2020 through January 2021 include: Chile, Brazil, French Guiana, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Belarus, and Ukraine. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: Kenya, Tanzania, Pakistan, Afghanistan, and northern European Russia. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model v2 (WSIMv2) run on 4 May 2020.
The May Outlook indicates exceptionally hotter than normal temperatures in a number of regions but anomalies will be particularly widespread across Siberia and eastern Russia reaching the Bering Strait. Precipitation conditions are expected to be relatively normal overall, though Bhutan will be much drier than normal with anomalies reaching into India’s Far Northeast.
The forecast through June indicates water surpluses near Toronto and Calgary, and deficits for Winnipeg, Regina, and Vancouver Island. Deficits will shrink in Quebec but remain widespread in the north, and surpluses will emerge in the Gatineau River Watershed. Surpluses will increase in southeastern British Columbia.
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