The forecast through May indicates that water deficits will downgrade, with moderate anomalies throughout most of the continent, some pockets of greater intensity, and surpluses in Tanzania. Exceptional deficits are forecast in the Ethiopian Highlands. Other areas of significant deficit include Equatorial Guinea, Lesotho, Guinea-Bissau, central Republic of the Congo, eastern Angola, western Zambia and central Zambia and along the Zambezi River, and northern Zimbabwe.
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The forecast through February indicates that water deficits will downgrade considerably. However, areas with notably intense conditions include western Ethiopia; pockets of northern Somalia, Nigeria, and southwestern Cameroon; southwestern Angola into Namibia; and, Lesotho and the Orange River region of Northern Cape, South Africa. Surpluses are forecast for Tanzania, southern Congo into western DRC and northern Angola, and south-central Chad.
Much warmer than normal temperatures are forecast in February for the US West, the Baja Peninsula, the Tibetan Plateau, and far northeastern Russia, including the Kamchatka Peninsula. Nearly all of India will be warmer than normal. Paraguay is expected to be cooler than normal. Eastern Brazil should see above average rainfall, as will central Mexico and western India.
Most areas of exceptional water deficit will downgrade through March. Moderate deficits are expected across northern Africa, with more severe conditions in Morocco, Western Sahara, and Guinea-Bissau. Intense deficits are also forecast for southeastern Nigeria, southwestern Cameroon, Equatorial Guinea, and Gabon. Intense deficits will retreat in southern Africa. Surpluses will linger in southern Sudan, northeastern South Sudan, Tanzania, northern Mozambique, and northern Madagascar. After March deficits in northern Africa will intensify, but south of the Sahara milder conditions will prevail.
Exceptional water deficits are forecast to diminish considerably November through January, but will continue to emerge in coastal Mauritania, western Niger, southeastern Nigeria, and southern Cameroon. Deficits in South Africa are expected to moderate but severe deficits are forecast along the Orange River and from Lesotho through Swaziland. Notable surpluses are expected in southern Sudan, South Sudan, Tanzania, Malawi, Mozambique, and Zambia. After January, moderate to severe deficits are forecast across North Africa, mild deficits in the south, and surpluses in Tanzania.
Exceptional water deficits are expected to diminish considerably, leaving severe conditions across the north but relatively moderate conditions in the south. Some intense deficits are forecast for western Mauritania, southwestern Burkina Faso, the Chinko Nature Reserve in Central African Republic, southwestern Namibia, and Cape Town, South Africa. Surpluses are forecast for southeastern Sudan, northeastern South Sudan, the Niger Delta, Gabon, north-central Uganda, eastern Tanzania, Okavango Delta in Botswana, and the central border between Botswana and South Africa.
Most noteworthy in the November 2016 Outlook is the forecast of a vast expanse of exceptionally warmer temperatures for the US Midwest and northward through Canada. Significant warm anomalies are also expected in coastal West Africa, the Gulf of Guinea, Madagascar, India's southern tip, and Southeast Asia. Exceptional dry anomalies are forecast along South America's northern Pacific coast and in southern Ethiopia. Areas forecast to experience wet anomalies include northern Brazil and northern Australia.
Though the severity of water deficits across North Africa is forecast to shrink from August through October, the widespread extent of deficits will remain the same. Deficits will also persist in Democratic Republic of the Congo, southeastern Central African Republic, and much of Africa’s southern half, with extreme deficits forecast to persist in northern Zambia through November. From November through January nearly all of Africa is forecast to experience some degree of water deficit, primarily moderate.