The forecast through May indicates that water deficits will downgrade, with moderate anomalies throughout most of the continent, some pockets of greater intensity, and surpluses in Tanzania. Exceptional deficits are forecast in the Ethiopian Highlands. Other areas of significant deficit include Equatorial Guinea, Lesotho, Guinea-Bissau, central Republic of the Congo, eastern Angola, western Zambia and central Zambia and along the Zambezi River, and northern Zimbabwe.
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The forecast through February indicates that water deficits will downgrade considerably. However, areas with notably intense conditions include western Ethiopia; pockets of northern Somalia, Nigeria, and southwestern Cameroon; southwestern Angola into Namibia; and, Lesotho and the Orange River region of Northern Cape, South Africa. Surpluses are forecast for Tanzania, southern Congo into western DRC and northern Angola, and south-central Chad.
The forecast through December indicates that intense deficits will shrink considerably across northern Africa but emerge across the southern Sahara and into the Sahel. Intense deficits are forecast for the Nile River and western Ethiopia. Mild deficits are forecast for much of Africa’s southern half. Areas of surplus include southern Mali, Sierra Leone, Liberia, Burkina Faso, Ghana, coastal and northeastern Nigeria, south-central Chad, Republic of the Congo, Tanzania, and southern Kenya.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from June 2018 through May 2019 include: the US Pacific Northwest, southern Mexico, Brazil, Chile, Central and Northern Europe, northern Africa, the Middle East, Afghanistan, and southern India. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: Tanzania, Kenya, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Laos, and Heilongjiang, China. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) run on 10 September 2018.