*Special Topics
ISciences staff
Mexican Drought in Historical Context: A sign ...

The ISciences Global Water Monitor and Forecast Watch List provides monthly reports of data collected by our Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM), which monitors and forecasts water anomalies on a global basis.

Mexican Drought in Historical Context: A sign of more extreme heat-driven drought to come
*Water Watch Lists
ISciences staff
ISciences Worldwide Water Watch List April 2024

The forecast for April 2024 expects significant water deficits for the 12-month period of January 2024 through December 2024 in South America, northeastern Africa, and the Middle East. Areas expected to experience surplus include eastern to eastern Africa, northern Australia, Europe, and Southeast Asia.

ISciences Worldwide Water Watch List April 2024
East Asia
ISciences staff
East Asia: Exceptional deficits continue in N, ...

The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits will persist in northwestern regions of China, but lessen in size in northern and northeastern China. Surpluses occurring in Tibet are also expected to remain but diminish in size. 

East Asia: Exceptional deficits continue in N, NW China
Southeast Asia & Pacific
ISciences staff
Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Surplus spreads ...

The forecast indicates that deficits will persist throughout Mainland Southeast Asia, but decrease in intensity, becoming mostly moderate to severe anomalies. Intense surplus is expected to expand throughout Maritime Southeast Asia, particularly in central Indonesia, Papua, and Papua New Guinea. 

Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Surplus spreads throughout Maritime SE Asia
South Asia
ISciences staff
South Asia: Surplus expands throughout India

The forecast indicates that most exceptional deficits in Pakistan and Afghanistan will dissipate, though some regions are expected to experience lingering deficits. India is expected to observe widespread surplus throughout the country. 

South Asia: Surplus expands throughout India

Ft. McMurray

Canada: Intense water surpluses to persist near Kelowna, BC

Canada: Intense water surpluses to persist near Kelowna, BC

Widespread water surpluses will continue to emerge in northeastern Quebec and surpluses are also forecast for central Ontario, west of Lake Winnipeg in Manitoba, near Churchill Lake in Saskatchewan, and the central border of Alberta and British Columbia. Exceptional surpluses are forecast around Kelowna, BC. Significant areas of deficit include: the Ontario/Quebec border; from Calgary, Alberta northeast and from Banff into British Columbia; and, Prince George, BC. After February, surpluses in Quebec and Ontario will normalize, widespread surpluses are expected in southern BC, and moderate deficits will emerge from Lake Superior eastward past Montreal. 

Canada: Extreme water surpluses to persist near Ottawa

Canada: Extreme water surpluses to persist near Ottawa

While the forecast for Canada will remain a patchwork of water anomalies, the most noticeable difference in the near-term is the widespread emergence of surplus conditions in Quebec and the slight downgrade of deficits west of Hudson Bay. Surpluses may be extreme near Ottawa. Significant deficits are forecast through January or longer in Jamésie, Quebec; the northern border between Quebec and Ontario; the southeast and southwest shores of Hudson Bay; and northwestern Ontario into central Manitoba. After January near-normal water conditions are forecast for large portions of eastern Canada.

Canada: Intense water deficits forecast Sherbrooke QC, deficits Kelowna BC

Canada: Intense water deficits forecast Sherbrooke QC, deficits Kelowna BC

The near-term forecast through December indicates intense water deficits along the northern Ontario-Quebec border into southern Nord-du-Québec, and in Sherbrooke (Quebec), New Brunswick, southern Nova Scotia, southeastern Newfoundland, northeastern Manitoba into Quebec, and from Glacier National Park in British Columbia into Alberta. Deficits will retreat in the Prairie Provinces. Exceptional surpluses are forecast west of Lake Winnipeg in Manitoba into Saskatchewan; from Churchill Lake in SK past Ft. McMurray, Alberta; and, near Kelowna, BC.

Canada: Widespread water deficits forecast in QC, surpluses southern BC, AB

Canada: Widespread water deficits forecast in QC, surpluses southern BC, AB

Widespread severe to exceptional water deficits are forecast through September in much of Quebec, along its border into Ontario, around Hudson Bay in Manitoba, and in central and northwestern regions of Alberta and British Columbia. Large pockets of exceptional surpluses are expected to persist through June in southeastern British Columbia, northwestern Saskatchewan into Alberta, and in central Manitoba. These surpluses are expected to diminish after June. 

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

For more information contact info@isciences.com.

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