The forecast indicates a transition in April to water deficits across much of Europe, but until then widespread surpluses will persist in Northern, Central, Eastern Europe, and European Russia and are expected to be exceptional in Russia, northern Poland, northwestern Ireland, and along the Dnieper River in Ukraine. Deficits will continue to emerge in Southern Europe, particularly the Iberian Peninsula, but will retreat significantly in France, persisting only along the southern coast. Intense deficits will emerge in Crimea, and will persist in northern Finland and northern Norway.
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Exceptional water deficits are expected to diminish considerably, but deficits of varying severity remain in the forecast for Finland, England, Belgium, France, Portugal, Spain, and across the Mediterranean through the Balkans. Exceptional surpluses will continue to emerge in western Russia and Poland, and surpluses are also forecast Romania, Moldova, Lithuania, Belarus, Germany, Czech Republic (Czechia), Austria, northern United Kingdom, Ireland, and southern Norway. From February through April surpluses will begin to moderate somewhat and the extent of deficits will shrink.
Water deficits will continue to dominate much of Europe through September but will diminish significantly thereafter. Through September, however, exceptional deficits will persist in Finland, Estonia, and many pockets of Western and Central Europe. Severe to exceptional deficits are expected along many rivers including the Danube, the Drava, the Rhine, the Rhône, and the Loire. Surpluses in Western Russia will persist through September but diminish in extent and severity except in Murmansk, where exceptional surpluses will continue to emerge. Exceptional surpluses are forecast for eastern Romania and Moldova which will persist through December.
In the near-term, Europe is forecast to experience generally moderate water deficits with more exceptional conditions affecting the Baltic States, Finland and southern Sweden. On the mainland the Benelux States as well as portions of Austria and Italy may experience more intense conditions. These are forecast to moderate steady through the mid-forecast period shifting to moderate surpluses across most of northern Europe in the December through February 2018 time frame. A pocket of exceptional surpluses in eastern Romania persists throughout the forecast, moderating slightly in early 2018.
Water deficits of varying severity are forecast to persist in western, northern, and Mediterranean nations of Europe, and to emerge eastward in the next three months. Surpluses are forecast to diminish in Eastern Europe and western European Russia, persist in eastern Romania and Moldova, and emerge in Murmansk (Russia) and northwestern Sweden. Except for Finland and Estonia, where deficits will remain exceptional, the forecast for August through October indicates an overall reduction in the extent and severity of deficits.