From May through July moderate to severe water deficits are forecast to emerge in eastern Myanmar and western Thailand. Exceptional deficits in Papua New Guinea will downgrade but severe to extreme deficits will persist and emerge farther west into Papua, Indonesia. Moderate deficits are forecast to emerge in the western two-thirds of Indonesian Borneo. Surpluses reaching exceptional severity will persist in Sumbawa and Flores Islands, Indonesia, and moderate surpluses are forecast for northeastern Borneo and southern Philippines. After July deficits in the region will downgrade and surpluses will nearly disappear.
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Regions likely to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from February 2017 through January 2018 include: Florida (US), Brazil, northern Chile, French Guiana, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, northern Africa, Gabon, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Papua New Guinea, and Tasmania (Australia). Water surpluses are forecast for: Idaho (US), La Pampa (Argentina), western European Russia, eastern Romania, southeastern Tanzania, the Volga River Basin, between the Ob and the Tom Rivers (Russia), and Kazakhstan. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) Global Water Monitor and Forecast issued 9 May 2017.
Though water surpluses are forecast for many parts of the region through January, exceptional deficits will persist in Cambodia through April. Surpluses are forecast through January in Laos, southern Vietnam, Java, Flores Island, eastern Borneo, Mindanao, and western Luzon, which may be exceptional in some areas. With the exception of the Philippines, many parts of the region will transition to water deficits from February through April.
Regions likely to encounter significant water deficits in the coming months include: the US South, Oaxaca (Mexico), Chile, Scandinavia, southeastern Ethiopia and southern Somalia, Iran, the Indian states of Karnataka, Kerala, and Gujarat, and Cambodia. Water surpluses are forecast for: the US Northwest and Upper Midwest, eastern North Carolina, southern British Columbia (Canada), Nicaragua, eastern Romania, southern Belarus, northeastern Poland, Nepal, Bangladesh, western Myanmar, Java, Shanghai, Fujian, and the Warrego River Basin (Australia). This watch list is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) Global Water Monitor and Forecast issued 9 November 2016.
Though water surpluses are forecast for many parts of the region through December, exceptional deficits will persist in Cambodia and in southern Thailand along the Gulf of Thailand. Exceptional surpluses are forecast in northern and southern Laos; Java; Gorontalo Province in central Sulawesi Island, Indonesia; and western Flores Island. After December much of Southeast Asia, Malaysia, and parts of Indonesia will transition to deficit.
Exceptional water deficits are forecast to persist in Cambodia through May. From September through November deficits will continue to emerge in Thailand and the eastern half of Luzon, Philippines. Surpluses are forecast in Laos, western Flores Island, Vietnam, Sumatra, Java, North Kalimantan, West Papua, and northern Luzon. By December, however, much of the region will begin to transition to water deficits of varying severity which will persist through May.
Regions likely to encounter significant water deficits in the coming months include: Ohio, Pennsylvania, the Missouri and Yellowstone Rivers, southern Mexico, Chile, Central and Eastern Europe, North Africa, Zambia, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Siberia, Gujarat, Cambodia, South Korea, and Tasmania. Water surpluses are forecast for: Minnesota, Wisconsin, Louisiana; Paraguay; European Russia and the Volga Basin; the Chambal, Yamuna, and Ganges Rivers in India; Bangladesh; western Myanmar; Laos; and the Yellow, Yangtze, and Pearl Rivers in China. This watch list is based on ISciences' Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) Global Water Monitor and Forecast issued 8 September 2016.
Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, and the Malay Peninsula are forecast to continue in conditions of water deficit, which will be especially severe in Cambodia. Surpluses in western Borneo will diminish by September while surpluses on Java, and Flores Island may persist longer. From November on, deficits will increase in extent and severity on the Malay Peninsula and Sumatra, and will emerge in northeastern Borneo.
Regions likely to encounter significant water deficits in the coming months include: the US Northeast and Southeast, southern Mexico, central Brazil, Finland, North Africa, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Saudi Arabia, Cambodia, and Tasmania. Water surpluses are forecast for: western Wisconsin, Nebraska, eastern Texas, the Ob and Volga River Basins in Russia, central India, the Yellow and Lower Yangtze Rivers in China. This watch list is based on ISciences' Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) Global Water Monitor and Forecast issued 9 August 2016.
Southeast Asia & the Pacific: Water deficits forecast for Thailand, Cambodia, Malay Peninsula, Timor
Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, and the Malay Peninsula are forecast to continue in conditions of water deficit through March 2017, which will be especially severe in Cambodia. Exceptional deficits will emerge in the Mekong Delta in July, and are forecast for Timor through October. Surpluses in western Borneo will gradually diminish through September as will surpluses on Java and Flores Island, though they may persist longer. Sumatra will transition from surplus to deficit beginning in September.