The near-term forecast indicates a vast stretch of exceptional water deficit from Xinjiang through southern Mongolia and eastern Inner Mongolia, and in Shandong, China. Severe to extreme deficits will continue to emerge in South Korea, and the extent of deficits in Fujian and Guangdong will increase somewhat. Exceptional surpluses will continue to emerge in the Han River (Hanjiang) watersheds and the eastern stretch of the Ordos Loop of the Yellow (Huang) River. After March exceptional deficits and surpluses will retreat but some areas of intense anomalies will persist.
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Water deficits are forecast to diminish in severity November through January in Northeast China, the Korean Peninsula, and the Shandong Peninsula, but will continue to emerge on Liaodong Peninsula, Guizhou, northeast Guangxi, and eastern Yunnan. Exceptional surpluses will persist in Shanghai, Jiangsu, Anhui, and Fujian, but from February through April conditions in Fujian will transition to near-normal. Moderate deficits will emerge in many parts of North Korea.
East Asia: Surpluses on Yellow and Yangtze Rivers to diminish, surpluses to persist in Zhejiang & Fujian
From October through December the severity of deficits on the Korean Peninsula will persist while that of the Shandong Peninsula is expected to diminish. The extent of exceptional deficits in Yunnan and Guangxi is forecast to shrink somewhat, but deficits will emerge from that region leading north. Surpluses on the Yellow and Yangtze Rivers will diminish, but surpluses will continue to emerge in Zhejiang, Fujian, and southern Taiwan. Widespread surpluses that have dominated China recently are notably absent in the January through March forecast.
Water surpluses in the Yangtze Basin are forecast to diminish in extent from September through November, while to the south surpluses in the Pearl River basin will increase. Water deficits are expected to increase from the Shandong Peninsula westward to the Tibetan Plateau, and deficits are also forecast for Shanghai. Elsewhere in the region deficits are forecast in Taiwan and South Korea during this period; surpluses are forecast for Hokkaido, Japan. From December through February surpluses along the Yellow, Yangtze, and Pearl Rivers will moderate.