Jiangsu

East Asia: Widespread, exceptional water surpluses continue to emerge on Yangtze

East Asia: Widespread, exceptional water surpluses continue to emerge on Yangtze

Water surpluses in the Lower Yangtze are expected to become widespread and exceptional. Exceptional surpluses are also forecast for the Middle and Upper Yellow River, Qinghai, and western Tibet. Intense deficits will continue to emerge in Mongolia and Inner Mongolia, deficits in South Korea will increase, and deficits in southeastern China will moderate, except in Fujian. After January exceptional deficits will continue to emerge to form a vast stretch across much of Mongolia and Inner Mongolia. Deficits will emerge around the Bohai Sea, and surpluses in the Lower Yangtze will diminish.

East Asia: Water deficits to emerge in South Korea, Japan, & persist in Mongolia

East Asia: Water deficits to emerge in South Korea, Japan, & persist in Mongolia

A return to normal water conditions is forecast for Southeast China from April through June – a change from surpluses observed in prior months. Deficits are forecast to emerge in South Korea, Japan, Northeast China, the Shandong Peninsula, Henan, and Shaanxi. Severe to exceptional deficits will persist in southern Mongolia, western Inner Mongolia, the Tarim Basin and eastern Dzungaria regions of southern Xinjiang, and southern Liaoning. Surpluses are forecast for northern Sichuan and much of Qinghai. The forecast for July through September indicates the persistence of deficits in western Inner Mongolia and Mongolia, and the emergence of deficits in the Sichuan Basin. 

East Asia: Water deficits forecast in Mongolia, Inner Mongolia; surpluses Jiangsu

East Asia: Water deficits forecast in Mongolia, Inner Mongolia; surpluses Jiangsu

From March through May water deficits are forecast to persist in southern Mongolia; western Inner Mongolia, the Tarim Basin and eastern Dzungaria regions of southern Xinjiang, and southern Liaoning in China; and Hokkaido, Japan. Deficits are expected to emerge in southeast China from Zhejiang through eastern Yunnan, and in Taiwan, South Korea, and eastern Honshu, Japan. Moderate deficits will persist in southern Shaanxi and eastern Sichuan, and may become severe along the Han River. Surplus conditions are expected to persist in Jiangsu.

East Asia: Water surpluses in Shanghai, deficits in Inner Mongolia

East Asia: Water surpluses in Shanghai, deficits in Inner Mongolia

Water conditions observed in the region through November and forecast through April are characterized by exceptional anomalies, both surpluses and deficits, while the forecast for the latter six months of the 12-month forecast (May through October) shows a decrease in the intensity of anomalies. From February through April surpluses are forecast from Shanghai through northern Hunan. Extreme to exceptional deficits are forecast for southern Mongolia, western Inner Mongolia (China), eastern Yunnan, and northern Taiwan. Moderate deficits are expected in Ningxia, southern Shaanxi, Gansu, eastern Sichuan, the Liaodong Peninsula, eastern Guangxi, and Guangdong. Both deficits and surpluses reaching exceptional intensity will continue to emerge in China’s western half.

East Asia: Water surpluses forecast in Shanghai; deficits eastern Sichuan

East Asia: Water surpluses forecast in Shanghai; deficits eastern Sichuan

Water surpluses are forecast to persist in Southeast China through March but with diminished severity, except in Shanghai and Jiangsu where exceptional surpluses may persist. Deficits will continue to emerge on the Liaodong Peninsula, eastern Sichuan, Shaanxi, Gansu, Ningxia, and eastern Yunnan. Exceptional deficits intermingled with conditions of both deficit and surplus are expected across northern China from central Inner Mongolia west and north into Mongolia. After March Southeast China is forecast to transition to normal conditions and anomalies elsewhere in the country will generally diminish in severity.