The near-term forecast indicates a vast stretch of exceptional water deficit from Xinjiang through southern Mongolia and eastern Inner Mongolia, and in Shandong, China. Severe to extreme deficits will continue to emerge in South Korea, and the extent of deficits in Fujian and Guangdong will increase somewhat. Exceptional surpluses will continue to emerge in the Han River (Hanjiang) watersheds and the eastern stretch of the Ordos Loop of the Yellow (Huang) River. After March exceptional deficits and surpluses will retreat but some areas of intense anomalies will persist.
Viewing entries tagged
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from September 2017 through August 2018 include: Amapá, Amazonas, Tocantins, and Goiás (Brazil); Mauritania; United Arab Emirates; Cambodia; Fujian and Inner Mongolia (China); and, South Australia and Tasmania (Australia). Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: Bangladesh; Tripura and Mizoram (India), western Myanmar; Hubei (China); Poland; and European Russia. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) run on 7 December 2017.
Water surpluses in the Lower Yangtze are expected to become widespread and exceptional. Exceptional surpluses are also forecast for the Middle and Upper Yellow River, Qinghai, and western Tibet. Intense deficits will continue to emerge in Mongolia and Inner Mongolia, deficits in South Korea will increase, and deficits in southeastern China will moderate, except in Fujian. After January exceptional deficits will continue to emerge to form a vast stretch across much of Mongolia and Inner Mongolia. Deficits will emerge around the Bohai Sea, and surpluses in the Lower Yangtze will diminish.
Widespread intense deficits will emerge in Zhejiang, Fujian, Guangdong, and Taiwan. Widespread intense surpluses are forecast for a vast stretch of the Upper and Middle Yangtze River, with exceptional surpluses in the Han River watershed. Aforementioned deficits may persist through March and surpluses may persist longer. Severe surpluses will continue to emerge along the Middle and Lower Yellow River through December. Surpluses in the western Pearl River watershed and around the Gulf of Tonkin are forecast to diminish slowly through March. Intense surpluses will continue to emerge in eastern Qinghai while intense deficits are forecast in the west.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from July 2017 through June 2018 include: Amapá (Brazil), Estonia, Ukraine, Turkey, Syria, Jordan, Madhya Pradesh (India), western Cambodia, and Tasmania (Australia). Water surpluses are forecast for: Tripura, Mizoram, and Manipur (India), western Myanmar, the Upper and Middle Yangtze River (China), and the Upper Ob River and Tom River Basins and the Transvolga Region (Russia). This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) Global Water Monitor and Forecast issued 9 October 2017.
From March through May water deficits are forecast to persist in southern Mongolia; western Inner Mongolia, the Tarim Basin and eastern Dzungaria regions of southern Xinjiang, and southern Liaoning in China; and Hokkaido, Japan. Deficits are expected to emerge in southeast China from Zhejiang through eastern Yunnan, and in Taiwan, South Korea, and eastern Honshu, Japan. Moderate deficits will persist in southern Shaanxi and eastern Sichuan, and may become severe along the Han River. Surplus conditions are expected to persist in Jiangsu.
Water surpluses are forecast to persist through February in a vast area along China’s coast from Jiangsu south through Guangdong and in Hainan, including exceptional surpluses in Shanghai, Jiangsu, Anhui, Fujian, Guangdong, and southern Taiwan. Water deficits will persist through February on the Liaodong Peninsula and in northeast North Korea, and through May near Incheon, South Korea and in southern Shaanxi, eastern Sichuan, Guizhou, and Yunnan with exceptional severity in Yunnan.