The forecast through February 2026 expects deficits in Central and Eastern Europe, Central Asia, and the Levant. Surpluses are expected in the western Amazon, the Sahel and southern Africa, and northeastern Australia.
Severe to exceptional surpluses will remain throughout Queensland. Exceptional deficits will occur in portions of Victoria, Western Australia, Tasmania, and New Zealand.
Exceptional deficits will occur in northwestern and southeastern China, widespread throughout the Yangtze River Basin. Isolated pockets of surplus will affect portions of central and northeastern China.
Exceptional surpluses throughout Maritime Southeast Asia will mostly diminish, though pockets of severe to exceptional deficits will persist in portions of the Philippines, Indonesia, Papua, West Papua, and New Guinea.
The forecast through June indicates that water deficits in Brazil will shrink, with nearly normal conditions in Pará and Amazonas, but intense deficits are forecast for Mato Grosso, Tocantins, Goiás, Mato Grosso do Sul, Minas Gerais, western São Paulo, and along many rivers. Surpluses will increase in northeastern states. Exceptional deficits will trace a path along the Pacific Coast from Lima, Peru reaching almost to Santiago, Chile. Surpluses will increase and intensify in Paraguay.
The forecast through June indicates widespread water deficits of varying intensity throughout much of Europe, including exceptional deficits in Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Belarus north of Minsk, southern Sweden, and eastern Croatia. Deficits will moderate in Spain but intensify in central France, especially along the Loire and Dordogne Rivers. Surpluses are forecast for pockets of Switzerland and Austria, southern Umbria in central Italy, northwestern Sweden, and Murmansk, Russia.
The forecast through June indicates that water deficits will downgrade in the southern half of the continent and its midsection but will intensify across the north. In the Horn, deficits will downgrade but exceptional deficits are forecast for Somalia from the Jubba River past the Shabelle River. Intense deficits are expected in Zambia, Zimbabwe, southwestern Angola, and the Okavango Delta. Areas of surplus include western Tanzania and south-central Chad.
The forecast through June indicates that widespread water surpluses will persist from northern Syria into southern Turkey, from the Euphrates River in Iraq well into western Iran, and in northern Iran along the coast. Deficits will downgrade on the Arabian Peninsula but will remain widespread. Central and northern Turkey will transition from surplus to moderate deficit.
The forecast through June indicates that the exceptional water deficits that have dominated much of Australia in prior months will nearly disappear, though intense anomalies are forecast in the north. Primarily moderate deficits are expected from Adelaide through Victoria and along rivers in the Murray-Darling system. Deficits are expected to be more intense in northeastern New South Wales, Tasmania, the southwestern tip of Western Australia, New Zealand, and New Caledonia.
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