The forecast through February 2026 expects deficits in Central and Eastern Europe, Central Asia, and the Levant. Surpluses are expected in the western Amazon, the Sahel and southern Africa, and northeastern Australia.
Severe to exceptional surpluses will remain throughout Queensland. Exceptional deficits will occur in portions of Victoria, Western Australia, Tasmania, and New Zealand.
Exceptional deficits will occur in northwestern and southeastern China, widespread throughout the Yangtze River Basin. Isolated pockets of surplus will affect portions of central and northeastern China.
Exceptional surpluses throughout Maritime Southeast Asia will mostly diminish, though pockets of severe to exceptional deficits will persist in portions of the Philippines, Indonesia, Papua, West Papua, and New Guinea.
The forecast through November indicates severe to exceptional water deficits in eastern Australia from Rockhampton, Queensland to Melbourne, including the eastern Murray-Darling Basin. Deficits will shrink in Tasmania but will be severe. Nearly normal water conditions are expected in New Zealand. Severe to extreme deficits will persist in New Caledonia.
The forecast through November indicates that water deficits will shrink and downgrade considerably, particularly in the south, where merely mild deficits are expected. Moderate to exceptional deficits are forecast across the north and along the southwest bank of the Red Sea. Surpluses will persist in pockets of the western Sahel, emerge in pockets around the Gulf of Guinea, and increase in East Africa around Tanzania.
The forecast through November indicates that water deficits in Central and Eastern Europe will shrink and moderate overall, but intense deficits are forecast in Finland and around the Baltic Sea. Conditions in Mediterranean Europe are expected to be relatively normal. Surpluses are forecast for Ireland and northern United Kingdom, and northern European Russia.
Widespread water surpluses observed in prior months will shrink through November. However, a broad column of surplus is forecast from southern North Dakota reaching into north-central Texas with intense anomalies in South Dakota. Other areas of surplus include eastern Nevada into western Utah, Wyoming, and California from San Francisco through the southwest. A pocket of exceptional deficit is expected in the central Everglades.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from June 2019 through May 2020 include: Canada, Brazil, French Guiana, Chile, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Egypt, Libya, Qatar, and United Arab Emirates. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: the United States, Tanzania, India, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, and southeastern and northeastern China. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model v2 (WSIMv2) run on 9 September 2019
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