The forecast through February 2026 expects deficits in Central and Eastern Europe, Central Asia, and the Levant. Surpluses are expected in the western Amazon, the Sahel and southern Africa, and northeastern Australia.
Severe to exceptional surpluses will remain throughout Queensland. Exceptional deficits will occur in portions of Victoria, Western Australia, Tasmania, and New Zealand.
Exceptional deficits will occur in northwestern and southeastern China, widespread throughout the Yangtze River Basin. Isolated pockets of surplus will affect portions of central and northeastern China.
The forecast through March 2020 indicates intense water surpluses in Sonora, Mexico, and intense deficits along Mexico’s Pacific Coast in Michoacán, Guerrero, Oaxaca, and Chiapas. Deficits will persist in Veracruz State, reaching inland, and emerge in the Yucatán. Surpluses are forecast in Central America, Haiti’s western coast, and the central Bahamas.
The forecast through March 2020 for Canada’s most populated areas indicates nearly normal water conditions for Québec City, Montreal, Saskatoon, Calgary, Edmonton, and Vancouver; moderate deficits west of Ottawa and around Regina; and severe surpluses west of Toronto. Nationwide, anomalies will be similar to those observed in the prior three months including widespread, exceptional deficits in central and northern Quebec.
Water deficits will shrink and downgrade considerably in Australia through March 2020. Moderate deficits are expected in the southeast from Brisbane, growing more intense as they reach into southern Victoria and Tasmania. Surpluses are forecast in northwestern Western Australia. Deficits will downgrade in New Caledonia.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from October 2019 through September 2020 include: Canada, Chile, Brazil, Finland, Ukraine, Egypt, and Australia. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: United States, Tanzania, Kenya, Ireland, United Kingdom, Russia, India, and Bangladesh. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model v2 (WSIMv2) run on 7 January 2020.
Much warmer than normal temperatures are indicated in the January 2020 Outlook for Northern and Eastern Europe, Russia, Southeast Asia, and Indonesia. Areas with a forecast of drier than normal conditions include the Balkans while regions around the Bay of Bengal are expected to be wetter than the norm.
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