Venezuela is expected to continue to experience widespread deficits, with large portions of the country experiencing exceptional deficit conditions (return periods greater than 40 years) affecting both the heavily populated coastal areas and in the watershed for the Guri dam (highlighted on the map with a star).
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Portions of Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, Nepal, and southern China are forecast to experience exceptional water surpluses during this period. This raises the possibility of broad area flooding, particularly if the monsoon begins while the ground is already saturated from earlier surpluses.
WSIM forecasts a strong drought in southern Mexico and Central America peaking in intensity over the six month period from July through December 2015 as shown in the map depicting the WSIM Composite Surplus/Deficit Index. Exceptionally dry conditions are expected across the southern half of Mexico and Central America, especially in Costa Rica and the western parts of Panama and Nicaragua, and follow significant droughts in the region last summer. Surpluses are forecast in northwest Mexico.
The prolonged drought in California has garnered significant political, public, and media attention. The WSIM Composite Surplus/Deficit Index for the next six months (April-Sept 2015), significant deficits will persist or intensify throughout much of the region, including Oregon, Washington, Nevada, Idaho, Utah, and Arizona. The multi-year regional drought is already impacting agriculture, electricity generation, domestic supplies, and real-estate development.
WSIM forecasts a widespread and exceptional drought for coastal West Africa (Gabon through Sierra Leone) peaking from July through Dec 2015. The affected region includes heavily populated areas of Nigeria and the countries facing challenges in the aftermath of the Ebola outbreak.
WSIM forecasts an intensification of the drought Southeast Asia over the next six months (April-Sept 2015). The most intense deficits are forecast for eastern and southern Thailand and western Cambodia.
WSIM forecasts an extended drought for much of Portugal and western/southern portions of Spain. The map is based on three months of observed data (January 2015 - March 2015) and nine months of forecast data (April 15 - December 15). Portugal and western Spain are forecast to experience drier conditions than normal, especially along their shared border.
WSIM is forecasting a drought in Belarus, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania over the next six months. Significant deficits are expected throughout the region, with extreme deficits forecast in western and central Estonia.
WSIM is forecasting widespread deficits in Papua New Guinea and Papua for the six month period July through December 2015. The islands of Melanesia, including New Guinea, are expected to experience drier conditions than normal, especially along the northern coast of Papua New Guinea.