Though exceptional water surpluses will diminish through March, widespread and intense conditions will persist from Wisconsin through southern Minnesota, Iowa, eastern Nebraska, eastern Kansas, central Oklahoma, and central and eastern Texas. Surpluses along the Eastern Seaboard will also persist but moderate, while conditions in the Ohio River Valley normalize. In the western US, mild deficits are forecast punctuated by pockets of more intense anomalies, deficits as well as surpluses.
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Exceptional water surplus conditions spanning the Pacific northwestern states of Washington, Oregon and Idaho are expected to moderate in the near-term. Moderate surpluses are expected to develop along the central Gulf Coast and extend up the Mississippi Basin through the forecast period, settling over the northern Great Plains states by early 2018. Severe to exceptional deficits are forecast to develop over most of Alaska and moderate but persist throughout the forecast period.
The forecast for the next three months shows a significant reduction in the extent and severity of water deficits in the Ohio River Valley, Lower Mississippi Valley, the Deep South, and South Atlantic states. Parts of New England will transition from deficit to moderate surplus. Surpluses are forecast in the northern half of Michigan’s Lower Peninsula, Wisconsin, and Iowa, southern Missouri, southern Kansas, northeastern Oklahoma, and southern Colorado. Extreme to exceptional surpluses are forecast in Idaho and surrounding states, and surpluses of generally lesser severity are expected in California’s northern two-thirds.
Severe to exceptional water deficits will continue to emerge in the South and South Atlantic states through September, with moderate deficits in the Northeast and in the Ohio River Valley, though deficits are expected to diminish somewhat in severity after June. Moderate deficits may emerge on the Arkansas and Colorado Rivers and moderate to severe deficits in northern Colorado from June through September. Exceptional surpluses are forecast to persist in Idaho through June, along with surpluses of varying intensity in the Pacific Northwest and California. After June the extent and severity of these surpluses is forecast to diminish.
Though the extent of exceptional deficits from Missouri to the Gulf and to the Atlantic is expected to recede from March through May, exceptional deficits will persist in Arkansas, Missouri, and western Illinois, and moderate deficits will emerge throughout much of the US east of the Mississippi. Surpluses are forecast for the Pacific Northwest, Idaho, northern Nevada, Central California, western Nevada, and western Colorado and are expected to be exceptional in Idaho, parts of Central California, and along the Columbia River.
In the US, water deficits are forecast to persist through February from Pennsylvania and Ohio southward to the Gulf but will diminish in severity thereafter. Much of the far Northeast, with the exception of Vermont, is expected to return to near-normal conditions December through February. Surpluses will continue to emerge in Wisconsin, southern Minnesota, and northern Iowa through February, and Idaho, western Montana, and Washington through May. Moderate deficits will emerge March through May in Maine, southern New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Connecticut, and from North Carolina through Florida.
Regions likely to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from September 2016 through August 2017 include: the US South; Chile; Scandinavia; northern Africa, southern Somalia, and South Africa; the Middle East; southern India; Cambodia; and northern Russia. Water surpluses are forecast for: southern Minnesota, Nicaragua, Kazakhstan, Bangladesh, western Myanmar, Laos, Vietnam, and Jiangsu and Shanghai, China This watch list is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) Global Water Monitor and Forecast issued 6 December 2016.
The outlook for the United States through January indicates that water deficits will dominate the Ohio River Valley west through Arkansas and south to the Gulf, as well as the Delaware and lower Susquehanna drainages. Surpluses of varying severity are forecast for a vast block of the Northwest, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, and eastern North Carolina. From February through April the severity of both deficits and surpluses will diminish and some states in the Midwest and Northeast will transition to near-normal conditions. However, surpluses will persist in much of the Northwest and Upper Midwest.
The forecast for the United States through November includes widespread extreme water deficits throughout the East and on the Missouri and Yellowstone Rivers, with moderate deficits in the West. A large pocket of surpluses is forecast along the Upper Mississippi River, encompassing southern Minnesota, much of Wisconsin, eastern Iowa, and northern Illinois. From December through February deficits across the US are forecast to diminish; surpluses will persist in Minnesota and Wisconsin and will continue to emerge southward.
The outlook for the United States through October indicates the persistence of widespread severe to extreme water deficits throughout the Northeast and the continued emergence of severe deficits in the Southeast. Deficits are also forecast for the West, Southwest, and Northern Border States. Water surpluses are forecast in western Wisconsin, southeastern Minnesota, eastern Iowa, Nebraska, eastern Texas, and southwestern Kentucky. After October, widespread deficits are forecast to diminish in extent and severity with the exception of the Missouri and Yellowstone Rivers, and in the Southeast. Surpluses are expected to persist in Wisconsin, eastern Minnesota, northeastern Iowa, and Nebraska. Moderate surpluses will emerge in Southern California and central Arizona, and later, throughout the Rocky Mountains States.