The near-term forecast shows a vast stretch of exceptional water deficits from southern Mongolia into Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia, China. Intense deficits are expected to emerge in Shandong, China, and will continue to emerge in South Korea. Less severe deficits are forecast for southeastern China and western Taiwan. Surpluses in the Han (Hanjiang) and Huai River watersheds will remain widespread and exceptional. Surpluses are also forecast for Shanghai, the eastern stretch of the Ordos Loop of the Yellow (Huang) River, northern Sichuan, Qinghai, central Tibet, and Hainan.
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Mixed conditions across East Asia are expected to continue over the next three months with moderate water deficits in China’s southern provinces of Guizhou and Guangxi persisting throughout the forecast period. Deficits on the Korean peninsula may shift from the vicinity of Incheon and Seoul to cover the majority of North Korea. Northeastern China is expected to develop severe to exceptional deficits that may intensify by the December through February 2018 period. Surpluses are indicated in the near-term for western Tibet but moderating over the extended forecast.
Water surpluses are forecast to persist through February in a vast area along China’s coast from Jiangsu south through Guangdong and in Hainan, including exceptional surpluses in Shanghai, Jiangsu, Anhui, Fujian, Guangdong, and southern Taiwan. Water deficits will persist through February on the Liaodong Peninsula and in northeast North Korea, and through May near Incheon, South Korea and in southern Shaanxi, eastern Sichuan, Guizhou, and Yunnan with exceptional severity in Yunnan.