The forecast through July indicates widespread water deficits throughout much of Europe, including exceptional deficits in Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Belarus. Moderate to extreme deficits are forecast for remaining areas of Europe and will be especially intense in southern Germany and along many rivers including the Danube, Drava, Allier, and Dordogne. Moderate surpluses are forecast for Ireland, and intense surpluses for southeastern Spain.
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Intense water deficits will give way to milder conditions after November along with some pockets of moderate surplus. Until then, severe to exceptional deficits are forecast for Germany, particularly in the south and along the Rhine River, as well as in Switzerland, Finland, southeastern Norway, and southern Ireland. Moderate to severe deficits are expected in many other areas including the Baltics, parts of Eastern Europe, Scotland and England, and much of France. Areas of surplus include Hungary and parts of Serbia, Romania, and Bulgaria. Surpluses will be intense in southern Hungary.
The forecast through October indicates that exceptional water deficits will diminish considerably but widespread deficits will continue to affect many parts of Central, Eastern, and Northern Europe and will be especially intense in Finland, Estonia, and southern Germany. Moderate deficits will increase in France. Surpluses are forecast for Hungary, Serbia, Kosovo, Romania, Bulgaria, and Moldova. On the Iberian Peninsula, surpluses will diminish overall, but persist in many parts of Spain and may be exceptional in the south.
Exceptional water deficits are expected to diminish considerably in the coming months – persisting only in Finland – leaving moderate deficits throughout much of Europe with slightly more intense deficits in parts of the Balkans. Intense surpluses will persist in western Russia, and surpluses are also forecast for northern Sweden, central Germany, Scotland, and Northern Ireland. After November most areas of deficit will return to near-normal conditions. Intense surpluses will persist in western Russia, along with surpluses of lesser severity primarily in Northern Europe.
The extent of exceptional water deficits is expected to diminish considerably in the coming months though southern Europe will remain in moderate deficit through April 2018. Some relief is in the near-term forecast, particularly for Italy, Spain, Portugal, and Belgium, as exceptional deficits shrink through October, though Finland will remain in the grip of intense deficits. Surpluses are forecast for western Russia, the border of Romania and Moldova, and a pocket in north-central Germany.
Water deficits will persist in parts of Mediterranean Europe including southern Spain and Portugal, Sardinia, Sicily, southern Greece, and Crete. Surpluses will persist in the United Kingdom and Ireland. Central and Eastern Europe are transitioning from surplus to deficits. Exceptional deficits are forecast for Finland and the Baltics.