The forecast through February 2026 expects deficits in Central and Eastern Europe, Central Asia, and the Levant. Surpluses are expected in the western Amazon, the Sahel and southern Africa, and northeastern Australia.
Severe to exceptional surpluses will remain throughout Queensland. Exceptional deficits will occur in portions of Victoria, Western Australia, Tasmania, and New Zealand.
Exceptional deficits will occur in northwestern and southeastern China, widespread throughout the Yangtze River Basin. Isolated pockets of surplus will affect portions of central and northeastern China.
Exceptional surpluses throughout Maritime Southeast Asia will mostly diminish, though pockets of severe to exceptional deficits will persist in portions of the Philippines, Indonesia, Papua, West Papua, and New Guinea.
Water deficits are expected to shrink and downgrade significantly through January with conditions approaching normal in Iraq, Syria, northeastern Saudi Arabia, and Iran. Deficits will intensify in Georgia, and extreme deficits will emerge on the Kura River in Azerbaijan. Intense deficits are also forecast for southern Saudi Arabia, Yemen, and, to a lesser degree, western Turkey and along Turkey’s Black Sea coast.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from August 2018 through July 2019 include: Quebec (Canada), Amazonas (Brazil), Chile, Germany, Finland, Latvia, Egypt, western Cambodia, and southeastern Australia. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: Texas (US), Liberia, Paraguay, Myanmar, and Heilongjiang (China). This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) run on 12 November 2018.
Warmer than normal temperatures are forecast for much of Central, Eastern, and Northern Europe, extending into European Russia. Anomalies are expected to be exceptional, 40+ years return period, around the Baltic Sea and well into northern European Russia. Eastern Europe and the Balkans will be drier than normal.
The forecast through December indicates that prior exceptional water deficits in Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, western Kazakhstan, and the North Caucasus region will downgrade considerably, leaving primarily mild conditions. In Russia, surpluses will increase between the Ob and Yenisei Rivers and will be extreme to exceptional. Moderate deficits are forecast in the southern Ural Mountains, with surpluses to the west. Surpluses will re-emerge in the Upper Don River watershed.
The extent of exceptional water deficit in the region will diminish considerably through December, though deficits will cover most of Brazil and will be intense across the north, in Mato Grosso, São Paulo, and Paraná. Intense deficits are also forecast in Bolivia from east of La Paz through Cochabamba to the south, and from southern Peru through the Atacama Desert in northern Chile past Santiago. Surpluses will persist in Uruguay, and in Entre Rios and Buenos Aires Provinces in Argentina, and will emerge in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil.
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