The forecast through February 2026 expects deficits in Central and Eastern Europe, Central Asia, and the Levant. Surpluses are expected in the western Amazon, the Sahel and southern Africa, and northeastern Australia.
Severe to exceptional surpluses will remain throughout Queensland. Exceptional deficits will occur in portions of Victoria, Western Australia, Tasmania, and New Zealand.
Exceptional deficits will occur in northwestern and southeastern China, widespread throughout the Yangtze River Basin. Isolated pockets of surplus will affect portions of central and northeastern China.
Exceptional surpluses throughout Maritime Southeast Asia will mostly diminish, though pockets of severe to exceptional deficits will persist in portions of the Philippines, Indonesia, Papua, West Papua, and New Guinea.
The forecast through December indicates pockets of intense water deficit in Mexican states along the southern Gulf of Mexico and across to the Pacific. Moderate deficits are forecast for Yucatan and Mexico’s southern Pacific coast. Surpluses will persist in Coahuila, and will increase in northern Sinaloa, western Chihuahua, and from Zacatecas through Mexico City. Surpluses are expected in eastern Guatemala and eastern Costa Rica. Deficits in Cuba will moderate.
Widespread water surpluses will emerge south of the Yangtze River and in the Pearl River watershed over the next few months and may persist through March. Surpluses are also forecast for Sichuan, Qinghai, and Tibet and may persist even longer. Deficits will increase and intensify from western Inner Mongolia through Xinjiang, and moderate to severe deficits will emerge from the North China Plain to the Yangtze River. Extreme surpluses are forecast for southern Japan, and deficits for southern North Korea.
The widespread exceptional water deficits that have dominated Afghanistan in recent months will moderate through December though deficits will remain more intense northeast of Kabul. Moderate deficits are forecast for southern Pakistan. In India, deficits will also moderate but will be intense along the Tungabhadra River in the southwest, and in Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, and Arunachal Pradesh. Areas of surplus include northernmost India, Uttar Pradesh, Nepal, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka.
Moderate deficits will dominate much of Europe from through December, downgrading from prior exceptional deficits in many areas. Severe to extreme deficits are, however, forecast for southern Sweden, central Finland, southern France, Switzerland, and southern Germany. Norway is expected to transition from exceptional deficit to moderate surplus or normal conditions. Moderate surpluses are also forecast in Scotland and extreme surpluses in west-central Sweden. Surpluses of varying intensity are forecast for European Russia and eastern Ukraine.
Water deficits are expected to shrink and downgrade significantly through December but intense deficits will persist in southern Iraq. Severe deficits are forecast for Georgia, Kuwait, most of Saudi Arabia, and into western United Arab Emirates. Deficits of varying severity are expected in Yemen, moderate to severe deficits in central and southern Iran, and mild deficits in the Levant.
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