The forecast through May indicates that water surpluses in Russia’s Ob River Basin will downgrade but remain widespread. Other areas of surplus include eastern Kyrgyzstan, western Tajikistan, and southern Turkmenistan. Deficits are forecast for the Volga River Basin, the Fergana Valley in eastern Uzbekistan and into Kyrgyzstan, central Tajikistan, and southern Kazakhstan. Deficits will be intense in the Fergana Valley.
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The forecast through December indicates that prior exceptional water deficits in Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, western Kazakhstan, and the North Caucasus region will downgrade considerably, leaving primarily mild conditions. In Russia, surpluses will increase between the Ob and Yenisei Rivers and will be extreme to exceptional. Moderate deficits are forecast in the southern Ural Mountains, with surpluses to the west. Surpluses will re-emerge in the Upper Don River watershed.
In Russia large pockets of exceptional surplus conditions are forecast for the Volga River Basin and from the Lower Ob River to the Tom River, persisting through March 2018. Deficits will continue to emerge in much of eastern Russia through March, though they are not expected to reach exceptional severity beyond September. Moderate to severe surpluses will emerge from the Ural Mountains to the western edge of the Central Siberian Plateau from October through March. Surpluses will persist in many parts of Kazakhstan and throughout Kyrgyzstan. Moderate to severe deficits are forecast for Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan through December, diminishing thereafter.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from April 2017 through March 2018 include: Brazil, Europe, northern Africa, Gabon, Somalia, Saudi Arabia, Cambodia, South Korea, Tasmania, and Mongolia. Water surpluses are forecast for: the US Gulf Coast and Idaho, La Pampa (Argentina), western European Russia, eastern Romania, southeastern Tanzania, the Volga River Basin, between the Upper Ob and the Tom Rivers (Russia), Kazakhstan, Bangladesh, and the southern Yangtze River Basin. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) Global Water Monitor and Forecast issued 10 July 2017.
Exceptional water surpluses are forecast in north central Kazakhstan; farther west between the Ural and Emba Rivers northeast of the Caspian Sea; and, along rivers elsewhere in Kazakhstan. Exceptional surpluses are also forecast in Russia in an area northwest of Kazakhstan, from the Volga River through the Ural Mountains. Water deficits are expected in Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, western Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.
Central Asia & Russia: Water surpluses forecast in Kazakhstan and central Russia, deficits in Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan
Exceptional water surpluses are forecast along rivers in Kazakhstan and in central Russia from the Volga River through the Ural Mountains to the western edge of the Central Siberian Plateau. Water deficits are expected in Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan and are forecast to persist through October.
Central Asia & Russia: Widespread surpluses forecast from the Ural Mountains to the Central Siberian Plateau, Moderate deficits expected in Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Tajikistan
Exceptional water surpluses are forecast along rivers in Kazakhstan and across the border into central Russia for an area extending from the Ural Mountains to the Central Siberian Plateau. Moderate water deficits are expected in Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Tajikistan and are forecast to intensify in the latter portion of the forecast period.