The forecast through February 2026 expects deficits in Central and Eastern Europe, Central Asia, and the Levant. Surpluses are expected in the western Amazon, the Sahel and southern Africa, and northeastern Australia.
Severe to exceptional surpluses will remain throughout Queensland. Exceptional deficits will occur in portions of Victoria, Western Australia, Tasmania, and New Zealand.
Exceptional deficits will occur in northwestern and southeastern China, widespread throughout the Yangtze River Basin. Isolated pockets of surplus will affect portions of central and northeastern China.
Exceptional surpluses throughout Maritime Southeast Asia will mostly diminish, though pockets of severe to exceptional deficits will persist in portions of the Philippines, Indonesia, Papua, West Papua, and New Guinea.
The forecast through September indicates that water deficits will downgrade in Thailand and nearly disappear in Cambodia. Surpluses will shrink and downgrade in Southeast Asia leaving moderate anomalies in southern Cambodia and in the Mekong Delta. Moderate to severe deficits will emerge in Indonesian Borneo, and deficits in Papua New Guinea will diminish.
The forecast through September indicates widespread water deficits throughout much of Europe, with exceptional anomalies in Finland, the Baltics, Belarus, southern Germany, Belgium, Austria, and Extremadura, Spain. Many rivers will be affected as well, with exceptional deficits on the Danube and Drava, and severe deficits on the Rhine, Allier, Dordogne, and Loire Rivers.
The forecast through September indicates that water surpluses will shrink and moderate in southeastern China, downgrade in Qinghai and western Tibet, and moderate in northeastern China. Deficits will shrink in Sichuan and in Yunnan but remain intense, and intense deficits in Henan and Shandong will disappear. Deficits in central Korea will shrink but remain severe in southern North Korea and into South Korea around Seoul. Deficits could be exceptional near Pyongyang.
The forecast through September indicates mild water deficits in much of Australia with more intense anomalies in Tasmania, surrounding Melbourne, in the eastern Murray-Darling Basin, and reaching north to the Darling Downs and Brisbane. In New Zealand, deficits are forecast on North Island. Extreme to exceptional deficits will persist in New Caledonia.
The forecast through September indicates that water deficits will shrink and downgrade overall, leaving moderate to severe deficits across the north and generally milder deficits in the south, punctuated by more intense pockets. Areas of exceptional deficit include Ethiopia west of Addis Ababa, coastal Côte d’Ivoire, southeastern Nigeria, and pockets of Zambia, Zimbabwe, and Botswana. Surpluses are forecast in Tanzania, Uganda, and south of Durban and west of Johannesburg, South Africa.
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