The forecast through February 2026 expects deficits in Central and Eastern Europe, Central Asia, and the Levant. Surpluses are expected in the western Amazon, the Sahel and southern Africa, and northeastern Australia.
Severe to exceptional surpluses will remain throughout Queensland. Exceptional deficits will occur in portions of Victoria, Western Australia, Tasmania, and New Zealand.
Exceptional deficits will occur in northwestern and southeastern China, widespread throughout the Yangtze River Basin. Isolated pockets of surplus will affect portions of central and northeastern China.
Exceptional surpluses throughout Maritime Southeast Asia will mostly diminish, though pockets of severe to exceptional deficits will persist in portions of the Philippines, Indonesia, Papua, West Papua, and New Guinea.
Through January 2020 surpluses are forecast for much of the region including exceptional anomalies in India from Mumbai into Kerala, the Narmada River Basin, and central Rajasthan. Surpluses will remain intense throughout Bangladesh and will increase in Afghanistan, with exceptional anomalies forecast in the Upper Helmand River Watershed and around Mazar-e Sharif.
Through January 2020 surpluses will persist in Laos, Vietnam, eastern Cambodia, and Myanmar. Intense deficits will persist in northwestern Cambodia and deficits of lesser intensity are forecast for much of Thailand. Deficits are also forecast for southern Sumatra, Java, southern Borneo, and Papua New Guinea. Anomalies will be especially widespread and intense in Java.
Through January 2020 deficits are forecast for Mongolia, North Korea, and the following regions of China: eastern Xinjiang, southern Yunnan, Taiwan, Fujian, the Shandong Peninsula, southern Henan, Anhui, and Jiangsu. Anomalies will be exceptional in Xinjiang, Mongolia, Yunnan, and Taiwan. Surpluses are forecast in Northeast China and a wide path from Tibet through the Yellow River Basin.
Through January 2020 deficits will shrink and downgrade considerably. Severe to extreme deficits are, however, forecast for Tasmania and eastern Australia from Melbourne north through Canberra, moderating near Gold Coast in Queensland and continuing past Brisbane. Deficits in New Caledonia will downgrade from exceptional but will be severe to extreme.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period from August 2019 through July 2020 include: Canada, Chile, Finland, Ukraine, Egypt, and United Arab Emirates. Areas with a forecast of significant water surplus include: United States, Uruguay, Tanzania, Ireland, United Kingdom, India, and Bangladesh. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model v2 (WSIMv2) run on 6 November 2019
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